North Carolina – Republicans
What Happened
“Anybody who says they knew this was coming – Democrat or Republican, pundit or pollster – is lying,” a veteran campaign operative said Wednesday The polls all missed it. Close races turned into routs. Narrow Democratic wins turned into Republican wins. Turnout models missed the mark, Early-voting hype was misleading. Tillis consultant Paul…
Read MoreMissing the Target
When you read breathless stories about sophisticated high-tech voter-turnout operations, be skeptical. I’ve been reading, with some concern, that Republicans are catching up with the vaunted Democratic ground operation. We’re told about canvassers fanning out 12 hours a day, seven days a week, armed with hand-held computers, linked in to a central brain that…
Read MoreShame and Hypocrisy
“Voter shaming” is new. Hypocrisy is as old as politics. The North Carolina Republican Party found a way to engage in both last week. A local voter received a card from the GOP with this warning: “The News and Observer reported last week that Barack Obama and Harry Reid’s operation plans to publish and…
Read MoreWhere’s Pat?
Governor McCrory is the Missing Man in Republican campaign ads. Thom Tillis campaigns with John McCain, Lindsay Graham and Mitt Romney. Wake County Republicans line up beside Sheriff Donnie Harrison. But no Pat. No “endorsed by Governor McCrory” boasts. Not many rallies featuring the Gov. The only ads about McCrory attack him on…
Read MoreBarefoot and Pregnant
Chad Barefoot must have asked his team: “What can we do that will so anger and offend women that they’ll vote AGAINST me?” They came up with an ad that has backfire potential approaching the “child molester” ad against Justice Robin Hudson. It portrays Sarah Crawford’s husband as a cigar-smoking lobbyist laughing about how his…
Read MoreDog Whistles
The term is new to me, but dog whistles are the oldest thing in Southern politics. This election, like all of them, comes down to race. In 1950, it was “White People Wake Up…Do you want Negroes working beside you, your wife and daughters in your mills and factories?” In 1984, it was…
Read MoreElon Poll Rx
If you’re tired of ads, tired of contradictory punditry and tired of conflicting, confusing and cooked-up polls, here’s a prescription for sanity: Take a dose of the Elon University poll. A warning about side effects: It will calm Democrats and give Republicans heartburn. (Hagan is up 45-41.)That aside, it gives you as clear, comprehensive…
Read MoreFlip a Coin?
Thom Tillis said Kay Hagan voted for Obama’s Stimulus Bill then her husband’s company got $390,000 in Stimulus Funds as a pay-off. And Hagan fired back Tillis (as Speaker) put a toll road near Charlotte in exchange for $25,000 in campaign contributions and sold three seats on the UNC Board of Governors for $75,000 in…
Read MoreTillis Vs. Tillis
Thom Tillis faces a big obstacle as he tries to catch up in the final days: Thom Tillis. If you turn off the sound and just watch Tillis, you’ll see the problem he has swaying undecided voters, especially those Walmart (or Target) moms who haven’t made up their minds yet. Tillis can look…
Read MoreNot a Ticket Splitter
A pollster will usually ask voters: Would you say you 1) Always vote Democratic, 2) Usually vote Democratic, 3) Always vote Republican, 4) Usually vote Republican or 5) would you say you split your ticket and vote for about as many Republicans as Democrats? Down at the Editorial Board (not in the news room)…
Read More