What Happened

“Anybody who says they knew this was coming – Democrat or Republican, pundit or pollster – is lying,” a veteran campaign operative said Wednesday   The polls all missed it. Close races turned into routs. Narrow Democratic wins turned into Republican wins. Turnout models missed the mark, Early-voting hype was misleading.   Tillis consultant Paul…

Read More

Step Away From the Ledge

North Carolina Democrats should push the pause, not panic, button.   It was, as George Bush famously said after the 2006 midterm, “a thumpin’.” It hurts like hell, especially when the other team spikes the ball and strikes a pose in the end zone. The temptation is to form up the circular firing squad and…

Read More

Barefoot and Pregnant

Chad Barefoot must have asked his team: “What can we do that will so anger and offend women that they’ll vote AGAINST me?”   They came up with an ad that has backfire potential approaching the “child molester” ad against Justice Robin Hudson. It portrays Sarah Crawford’s husband as a cigar-smoking lobbyist laughing about how his…

Read More

Dog Whistles

The term is new to me, but dog whistles are the oldest thing in Southern politics. This election, like all of them, comes down to race.   In 1950, it was “White People Wake Up…Do you want Negroes working beside you, your wife and daughters in your mills and factories?”   In 1984, it was…

Read More

Elon Poll Rx

If you’re tired of ads, tired of contradictory punditry and tired of conflicting, confusing and cooked-up polls, here’s a prescription for sanity: Take a dose of the Elon University poll.   A warning about side effects: It will calm Democrats and give Republicans heartburn. (Hagan is up 45-41.)That aside, it gives you as clear, comprehensive…

Read More

Flip a Coin?

Thom Tillis said Kay Hagan voted for Obama’s Stimulus Bill then her husband’s company got $390,000 in Stimulus Funds as a pay-off. And Hagan fired back Tillis (as Speaker) put a toll road near Charlotte in exchange for $25,000 in campaign contributions and sold three seats on the UNC Board of Governors for $75,000 in…

Read More

Not a Ticket Splitter

A pollster will usually ask voters: Would you say you 1) Always vote Democratic, 2) Usually vote Democratic, 3) Always vote Republican, 4) Usually vote Republican or 5) would you say you split your ticket and vote for about as many Republicans as Democrats?   Down at the Editorial Board (not in the news room)…

Read More

Asleep at the Switch

As bleak as Governor McCrory’s job approval numbers were in the WRAL poll, that wasn’t the worst news. Consider how Republicans, Democrats and Independents feel about the General Assembly.                                                                                 Republican Voters                                             Approve 35%                                             Disapprove 38%                                               Conservative Voters                                             Approve 33%                                             Disapprove 37%                                               Independent Voters                                             Approve…

Read More

Voter App

The Republican effort to suppress votes at Appalachian State University may have backfired.   More than 700 people voted yesterday at the Student Union polling place that the State Board of Elections tried to shut down. Now we know why the board didn’t want it.   An App student said, “It sends a clear message…

Read More

Disapproving of Pat

    36% Approve 46% Disapprove   The WRAL Poll painted a bleak picture  of a Governor caught between a rock and a hard place.  As Mark Binker wrote, only a little over a third of the voters approve of the job Governor McCrory is doing.   But worse news lurked beneath the surface.  …

Read More