Posts by Gary Pearce
Holy War
Elizabeth Dole has rolled a hand grenade into the Senate race. The question is whether it will blow up Kay Hagan or Dole herself. The Dole campaign last night launched an ad tying Hagan to the “Godless Americans PAC.” Today, an attorney sent Dole herself – at her Watergate residence in Washington – a letter…
Read MoreClosing the Gap
One striking thing about the plethora of North Carolina polls has received little attention: There is little difference this year in the Democratic vote for President, Senator and Governor. In 2004, Mike Easley ran some 12 points ahead of John Kerry. Erskine Bowles, although he lost to Richard Burr, ran several points ahead. For years,…
Read MoreThe N&O’s Stunner
An email sent out internally by Pat McCrory’s campaign said it all: “It’s freezing in hell tonight!” The News & Observer endorsed a Republican for Governor. Maybe for the first time ever. Our old friend Mr. Conventional Wisdom says newspaper endorsements don’t matter. Do they matter when man bites dog? The McCrory endorsement is a…
Read More28 Percent
Buried deep within the story buried deep within the N&O today on early voting is the most important number in this election: 28 percent. That’s the African-American percentage of the turnout so far. That’s eight points above what most polls assume black turnout will be. That’s eight more points for Obama – and, potentially, the…
Read MoreJim Hunt’s Secret Plan Revealed
Now it can be told. People have noticed that Governor Emeritus Jim Hunt seems to be everywhere this campaign: speaking at James Taylor’s concert, raising money for Kay Hagan, sending emails for Bev Perdue, campaigning across the state and – in his spare time – organizing Wilson County for Obama. Here is why: This election…
Read MoreWho’s Going to Win?
With Obama apparently cruising into the White House, the question everybody asks is who will win North Carolina – for President, Senator and Governor. To be blunt, I don’t know. The only people who really know are the people inside a campaign watching internal polls. They never tell the truth, unless they have an overwhelming…
Read MoreNet Revolution
Colin Powell – pausing in his devastating dismissal of John McCain – hailed Barack Obama as a “transformational figure.” Obama has damned sure transformed campaign fundraising. Take a moment to absorb what it means that his campaign raised $150 million in September: John McCain got only $84 million in public financing for the entire campaign.…
Read MoreSwinging Polls
I enjoy reading Public Policy Polling’s polls, and they were on the money in the primaries. But I question whether PPP is reading more movement in voter opinion than is really happening. This week, PPP’s Tom Jensen said the “Yankee trash” issue has moved Eastern North Carolina voters toward Perdue and given her a 48-44…
Read MoreDole’s Numbers
Jack Betts says Senator Elizabeth Dole “missed a golden opportunity” to strengthen her chances for reelection when she waffled on the Outlying Landing Field. But Dole is much bigger. It’s her numbers. Not her poll numbers, but the numbers the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s brilliant ads have hammered into voters’ minds: 40, as in “40…
Read MoreSpreading the Word
John McCain has come up with the one Hail Mary issue that can snatch victory: spread the wealth. And the one image: Joe the Plumber. Attacking on “spread the wealth” pulls together all the attacks McCain makes against Obama: he’ll raise taxes, he’s an elitist who doesn’t understand “real people” and – most of all…
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