Closing the Gap

One striking thing about the plethora of North Carolina polls has received little attention: There is little difference this year in the Democratic vote for President, Senator and Governor.


In 2004, Mike Easley ran some 12 points ahead of John Kerry. Erskine Bowles, although he lost to Richard Burr, ran several points ahead.


For years, Democrats like Easley and Jim Hunt ran ahead of the national ticket by double-digit margins. But Democratic Senate candidates could not achieve that much separation, so they lost in presidential years.


Now the polls all show Obama, Hagan and Perdue at about the same level – somewhere around 47-48 percent


Not coincidentally, that is virtually the same Bush-negative rating that Carter cited in a recent Republican poll.


This is good news and bad news for Democrats.


Good news because North Carolina is truly a battleground state in the presidential election.


Bad news because state candidates, for better or worse, are having a harder time separating themselves from the national ticket.


This is why I told The N&O that this year’s election is more about the tide than the swimmers.


So we are seeing a consolidation of both parties’ votes. Although voters claim they vote the man (or woman) and not the party, they vote the party.


But it’s not clear now whether that is a one-term thing – driven by Obamamania, anti-Bush feeling, the economic crash and the weaknesses of the McCain-Palin ticket – or a long-term trend in state politics.



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Gary Pearce

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Closing the Gap

One striking thing about the plethora of North Carolina polls has received little attention: There is little difference this year in the Democratic vote for President, Senator and Governor.


In 2004, Mike Easley ran some 12 points ahead of John Kerry. Erskine Bowles, although he lost to Richard Burr, ran several points ahead.


For years, Democrats like Easley and Jim Hunt ran ahead of the national ticket by double-digit margins. But Democratic Senate candidates could not achieve that much separation, so they lost in presidential years.


Now the polls all show Obama, Hagan and Perdue at about the same level – somewhere around 47-48 percent


Not coincidentally, that is virtually the same Bush-negative rating that Carter cited in a recent Republican poll.


This is good news and bad news for Democrats.


Good news because North Carolina is truly a battleground state in the presidential election.


Bad news because state candidates, for better or worse, are having a harder time separating themselves from the national ticket.


This is why I told The N&O that this year’s election is more about the tide than the swimmers.


So we are seeing a consolidation of both parties’ votes. Although voters claim they vote the man (or woman) and not the party, they vote the party.


But it’s not clear now whether that is a one-term thing – driven by Obamamania, anti-Bush feeling, the economic crash and the weaknesses of the McCain-Palin ticket – or a long-term trend in state politics.



Click Here to discuss and comment on this and other articles.

Avatar photo

Gary Pearce

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