Who’s Going to Win?
With Obama apparently cruising into the White House, the question everybody asks is who will win North Carolina – for President, Senator and Governor. To be blunt, I don’t know. The only people who really know are the people inside a campaign watching internal polls. They never tell the truth, unless they have an overwhelming lead. And nobody’s talking. John Davis, for whom I have enormous respect, says it will be Obama, Hagan and McCrory. But Public Policy Polling’s latest report suggests Obama, Hagan and Perdue. But a Democratic poll that I trust last week showed the Democrats short of what they need among white voters to win. With the exception of Carter, Republicans are depressed. One told me this week he thought Obama would get 52 percent here, bringing Hagan, Perdue and Larry Kissell (over Robin Hayes) in with him. Carter takes heart from a poll he’s blogged about showing Bush not quite unpopular enough here to sink the GOP’s big three. Of course, if the economic news gets worse, Bush could sink even deeper. I wrote a piece for the N&O this Sunday saying that history – and, admittedly, all the battle scars I’ve accumulated over 32 years in politics – still makes me skeptical about Democratic chances here this year. Seven times in a row, going back to 1980, the Democratic presidential candidate has lost North Carolina. They can’t get more than 42 percent of the vote. Six times in a row, going back to 1972, the Democratic Senate candidate has lost in presidential years. Yes, we’ve won four governor’s races in a row. But this is a change year, and Bev Perdue has struggled to escape the status quo label and the stink of scandal in Raleigh. So I still expect North Carolina to be red. A Democratic sweep would be a change of historic dimensions. And it can happen. If McCain and Republicans don’t change the psychology, they face a final week where all the news is demoralizing for them and energizing for Democrats. In politics as in sports, never underestimate momentum. And the momentum is moving in one direction.
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Who’s Going to Win?
With Obama apparently cruising into the White House, the question everybody asks is who will win North Carolina – for President, Senator and Governor. To be blunt, I don’t know. The only people who really know are the people inside a campaign watching internal polls. They never tell the truth, unless they have an overwhelming lead. And nobody’s talking. John Davis, for whom I have enormous respect, says it will be Obama, Hagan and McCrory. But Public Policy Polling’s latest report suggests Obama, Hagan and Perdue. But a Democratic poll that I trust last week showed the Democrats short of what they need among white voters to win. With the exception of Carter, Republicans are depressed. One told me this week he thought Obama would get 52 percent here, bringing Hagan, Perdue and Larry Kissell (over Robin Hayes) in with him. Carter takes heart from a poll he’s blogged about showing Bush not quite unpopular enough here to sink the GOP’s big three. Of course, if the economic news gets worse, Bush could sink even deeper. I wrote a piece for the N&O this Sunday saying that history – and, admittedly, all the battle scars I’ve accumulated over 32 years in politics – still makes me skeptical about Democratic chances here this year. Seven times in a row, going back to 1980, the Democratic presidential candidate has lost North Carolina. They can’t get more than 42 percent of the vote. Six times in a row, going back to 1972, the Democratic Senate candidate has lost in presidential years. Yes, we’ve won four governor’s races in a row. But this is a change year, and Bev Perdue has struggled to escape the status quo label and the stink of scandal in Raleigh. So I still expect North Carolina to be red. A Democratic sweep would be a change of historic dimensions. And it can happen. If McCain and Republicans don’t change the psychology, they face a final week where all the news is demoralizing for them and energizing for Democrats. In politics as in sports, never underestimate momentum. And the momentum is moving in one direction.
Click Here to discuss and comment on this and other articles.