Tax Gamble

The N&O’s banner headline today had to give Democrats heartburn: “The new plan: more taxes for all.”
 
Democrats in the legislature have no choice. For all the Republican fulminating about waste, piers and crabpots, the only alternative to higher taxes is deep cuts in education and human services. Democrats just can’t do that.
 
In the end, the only plan the House and Senate could agree on raises sales taxes and sin taxes and puts a surcharge on income taxes.
 
The question now: How bad will the damage be in November 2010?
 
The Republicans are betting that their old stand-by will work once more: All tax increases are inherently bad.
 
Democrats are gambling that North Carolina has changed. That a more urban-suburban population is willing to pay more for the services they want.
 
Cutting against that, unfortunately, is the drumbeat of stories about corruption and waste in state government. We would all like to believe that if somebody just cut out the waste, we could have all the services we want and not raise taxes.
 
I have no idea which party is making the winning political bet. I don’t have any polling to tell me right now. And polling today can’t predict votes next year.
 
Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling says Democrats have chosen the most unpopular of all the tax-hike options. I’m sure his polling shows that, but I’m not so sure it matters in the end. A tax increase is a tax increase.
 
Ultimately, it all may not matter. The 2010 elections may be more of a general referendum on President Obama and the economy than a specific vote about North Carolina taxes.
 
If that’s true, Democrats here may as well do what they think is right.
 
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Gary Pearce

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Tax Gamble

The N&O’s banner headline today had to give Democrats heartburn: “The new plan: more taxes for all.”
 
Democrats in the legislature have no choice. For all the Republican fulminating about waste, piers and crabpots, the only alternative to higher taxes is deep cuts in education and human services. Democrats just can’t do that.
 
In the end, the only plan the House and Senate could agree on raises sales taxes and sin taxes and puts a surcharge on income taxes.
 
The question now: How bad will the damage be in November 2010?
 
The Republicans are betting that their old stand-by will work once more: All tax increases are inherently bad.
 
Democrats are gambling that North Carolina has changed. That a more urban-suburban population is willing to pay more for the services they want.
 
Cutting against that, unfortunately, is the drumbeat of stories about corruption and waste in state government. We would all like to believe that if somebody just cut out the waste, we could have all the services we want and not raise taxes.
 
I have no idea which party is making the winning political bet. I don’t have any polling to tell me right now. And polling today can’t predict votes next year.
 
Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling says Democrats have chosen the most unpopular of all the tax-hike options. I’m sure his polling shows that, but I’m not so sure it matters in the end. A tax increase is a tax increase.
 
Ultimately, it all may not matter. The 2010 elections may be more of a general referendum on President Obama and the economy than a specific vote about North Carolina taxes.
 
If that’s true, Democrats here may as well do what they think is right.
 
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Gary Pearce

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