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Maybe Thom Tillis should give Civitas’ pollster math lessons.
Thursday morning, Civitas put out this release: “Democrat Tom Bradshaw leads Republican John Alexander by 16 percentage points in the NC Senate District 15 race, according to a new Civitas Flash Poll….” The poll, conducted last Monday and Tuesday, showed Bradshaw ahead 52-36 percent.
A few hours later, Civitas put out what it called “a corrected version of today’s flash poll on the candidates in NC Senate District 15.” It showed Bradshaw ahead by 10 points, 46-36.
I haven’t checked this morning. Maybe they have Tom behind by now.
One suspects the “correction” came after Civitas got an angry call from the Republican Senate campaign committee: Fix this – or else.
For the record, I’m working for Tom Bradshaw’s campaign. He’s a friend of 40-plus years and one of the finest people and leaders I’ve ever known.
Also for the record, we pay no attention to Civitas’ numbers. It’s probably a setup, anyway, so they can claim in a couple of weeks that Alexander “is closing the gap” or “has drawn dead even.”
There’s only one Civitas number I’m sure of: their credibility. It’s zero.


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4 comments on “Cooking Numbers at Civitas

  1. Anonymous says:

    Gary, you sound as if you are familiar with number fixing. Could it be that Democrats know what they do and naturaly suspect Republicans do the same things. This post about Civitas fixing numbers sounds so much like what Democrats do.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Yeah…District 15 is supposedly “lean-republican”. But, what we have there is a very popular and favored GOP politician that was running (Jim Fulghum) but found out he had cancer then in comes someone with not nearly the name recognition late in the game to replace Fulgham as the GOP candidate. You got lucky, Gary….you’d have lost this one hands down had Fulgham remained the candidate. But, alas, Bradshaw being an ex-mayor of Raleigh and a known name could very well pull him through. We’ll see. Glad you got the gig though. You sure as hell go out of your way to promote your creds here and within the democratic structure in the state. It’s why you say what you do here. This is one of the outlets you have to promote your pro-progressive/liberal/democrat leanings so as to get these kinds of gigs. You say you know Bradshaw and are working for him. That alone is enough for me to absolutely HATE him as a candidate for NC Senate. He HAS to stand for many things I stand against…as well as most conservative/republicans in our state.

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