North Carolina – Democrats
Closing the Gap
One striking thing about the plethora of North Carolina polls has received little attention: There is little difference this year in the Democratic vote for President, Senator and Governor. In 2004, Mike Easley ran some 12 points ahead of John Kerry. Erskine Bowles, although he lost to Richard Burr, ran several points ahead. For years,…
Read MorePerdue, Fundraisers & Roads
For years it’s been a North Carolina tradition for governors to appoint big contributors and fundraisers to the State Board of Transportation and, as a result, over the years more than a few roads have been paved for what looks a lot like political reasons. But with corruption getting out of hand in Raleigh and…
Read MorePerdue & Drilling
When it comes to drilling off North Carolina’s coast, Bev Perdue is like the Scarlet Pimpernel: She’s here, she’s there, she’s everywhere, that damned elusive Pimpernel. She’s gone from being 100% against drilling off North Carolina’s coast to saying (at the WRAL debate) that she wanted oil companies to start drilling – on sixty-eight million…
Read MoreThe N&O’s Stunner
An email sent out internally by Pat McCrory’s campaign said it all: “It’s freezing in hell tonight!” The News & Observer endorsed a Republican for Governor. Maybe for the first time ever. Our old friend Mr. Conventional Wisdom says newspaper endorsements don’t matter. Do they matter when man bites dog? The McCrory endorsement is a…
Read More28 Percent
Buried deep within the story buried deep within the N&O today on early voting is the most important number in this election: 28 percent. That’s the African-American percentage of the turnout so far. That’s eight points above what most polls assume black turnout will be. That’s eight more points for Obama – and, potentially, the…
Read MoreJim Hunt’s Secret Plan Revealed
Now it can be told. People have noticed that Governor Emeritus Jim Hunt seems to be everywhere this campaign: speaking at James Taylor’s concert, raising money for Kay Hagan, sending emails for Bev Perdue, campaigning across the state and – in his spare time – organizing Wilson County for Obama. Here is why: This election…
Read MoreSwinging Polls
I enjoy reading Public Policy Polling’s polls, and they were on the money in the primaries. But I question whether PPP is reading more movement in voter opinion than is really happening. This week, PPP’s Tom Jensen said the “Yankee trash” issue has moved Eastern North Carolina voters toward Perdue and given her a 48-44…
Read MoreDole’s Numbers
Jack Betts says Senator Elizabeth Dole “missed a golden opportunity” to strengthen her chances for reelection when she waffled on the Outlying Landing Field. But Dole is much bigger. It’s her numbers. Not her poll numbers, but the numbers the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s brilliant ads have hammered into voters’ minds: 40, as in “40…
Read MoreHold the Victory Dance
Democrats are giddy about North Carolina. That’s understandable. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a year that looks this good. But this election is not over. My best read on the polls is that Obama, Perdue and Hagan all are close to – but not yet at – where they need to be…
Read MoreCampaigns and Home Truths
One thing about campaigns: They do have a way of getting down to home truths – though most times they try pretty hard to hide it. One home truth is the candidate’s character. Or, occasionally, the character of whoever is behind the candidate pulling the strings. Another is the external forces beyond the candidate’s control…
Read More