Edward’s Chances

Hold the mayo on the John Edwards Is Toast Special. It is unlikely that Edwards will win the Democratic nomination. But this race has already seen five unlikelies – the rises of Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee and the resurrections of Hillary Clinton, John McCain and Mitt Romney. Four reasons to watch Edwards: Money. His…

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In Defense of Pundits

Enough self-flagellation, already. The media and all of us in the “chattering class” are in full mea culpa frenzy. We have sinned. We have over-reacted and over-reached and over-relied on polls. We have jumped to hasty conclusions. We have talked when we should have listened. We have been too quick to anoint winners and condemn…

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Change

The Democrats got the infection first. But it didn’t take long for the Republicans to catch the bug too. The symptoms: Uncontrollably saying the word ‘change’ passionately a dozen times in each sentence. Hillary says she’s been fighting for change all her life. John McCain has too. Barack Obama’s a fresh face which makes him…

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Remain Calm

An experienced ocean-swimmer knows what to do in a riptide. Don’t panic, and don’t fight it. Swim parallel to the shore until you’re out of trouble. Then get back to dry land. That’s what Hillary Clinton and John Edwards should do now. They’re caught in a Barack Obama tide. There’s no fighting it. But there…

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New Hampshire

Ten polls yesterday in New Hampshire; John McCain led in nine; Barack Obama in all ten. The press loves a good story and Obama’s given them one: David slaying the Clinton Goliath. And the press has gone a little berserk. Hillary’s best hope is to hold on until the wave passes. Which takes two things:…

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New Hampshire Change-up?

OK, OK, we’ve answered one question. The presidential race is all about “change.” But here is a baker’s dozen (plus one) other questions about New Hampshire Tuesday: Will New Hampshire voters be content to “finish what Iowa started,” as Obama suggests? Or will these notoriously independent Yankees revive the Clinton campaign? Obama says his campaign…

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Iowa Oscars

Only in America. After Iowa, the leading Presidential candidates are: An African-American man. The real thing, with a father from Kenya. A Southern Baptist preacher with a sense of humor and a populist streak. Both Obama and Huckabee get two prizes for winning: a big boost and a big bullseye. Put on your Kevlar, gentlemen.…

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Iowa Predictions

Only one result from the Iowa Democratic caucuses will surprise me tonight: a big win for Hillary. Three outcomes seem possible: Edwards wins big. But Mr. Conventional Wisdom decrees that he has to win again somewhere else to prove he’s not a one-hit wonder. Obama wins big. And Mr. Conventional Wisdom says that Hillary is…

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Geezers Gone Wild?

A friend who is in Iowa this week was struck by two things: “How seriously the Iowans we’ve met take their politics and with what discipline they entertain each candidate’s view” “The Obama headquarters was full of energy and not a person over 30.” News reports suggest that maybe 100,000 of Iowa’s two million voters…

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