Obama Can’t Lose

Health-care reform may die in Massachusetts today, and Democrats across the country may panic, but a loss in the Senate race won’t be the death blow to the Obama Presidency that Republicans dream of.
 
In fact, Obama wins either way. A Democratic win in Massachusetts guarantees enactment of reform. A Republican win gives him the chance to pivot and blame Republicans for failure.
 
When Obama runs against Washington, he clearly is a better performer than when he runs Washington. Thus it was throughout his campaign.
 
Historically, Democratic Presidents have their toughest times when Congress is overwhelmingly Democratic. See Clinton in 1994, LBJ in 1966 and FDR in 1936.
 
Conversely, Democratic Presidents do best when they can blame the country’s problems on do-nothing Republicans in Congress. See Truman in 1948 and Clinton from 1995 to 2000.
 
In the long run, a Massachusetts defeat may help Obama –help him not only win reelection in 2012, but avoid a Clinton-style debacle in November.
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Gary Pearce

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Obama Can’t Lose

Health-care reform may die in Massachusetts today, and Democrats across the country may panic, but a loss in the Senate race won’t be the death blow to the Obama Presidency that Republicans dream of.
 
In fact, Obama wins either way. A Democratic win in Massachusetts guarantees enactment of reform. A Republican win gives him the chance to pivot and blame Republicans for failure.
 
When Obama runs against Washington, he clearly is a better performer than when he runs Washington. Thus it was throughout his campaign.
 
Historically, Democratic Presidents have their toughest times when Congress is overwhelmingly Democratic. See Clinton in 1994, LBJ in 1966 and FDR in 1936.
 
Conversely, Democratic Presidents do best when they can blame the country’s problems on do-nothing Republicans in Congress. See Truman in 1948 and Clinton from 1995 to 2000.
 
In the long run, a Massachusetts defeat may help Obama –help him not only win reelection in 2012, but avoid a Clinton-style debacle in November.
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Gary Pearce

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