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Maybe I should apologize. But would Bob Rucho apologize? No sir! So I’ll double down, as they say.
My blog yesterday – warning that the next Congress might be run by people who think like Rucho – apparently ruined the Christmas spirit for some Democrats.
My friend Jerry Wayne Williamson of Boone (follow him at @JerryWilliamso1) wrote, “Well, Merry Christmas to you too! That’s the most depressing thing I’ve read all morning!” Long-time colleague June Milby said, “Gary, It’s the Christmas season, even Scrooge was redeemed right there at the end. Don’t hit us too hard with the ghosts of Christmas past. There’s plenty of time in January for that!
I can’t help it. And here I go again. Spoiler alert: This could really ruin your Christmas.
Here it is: Think about the chances that the 2014 elections could be even worse for Democrats than 2010 was.
Historically, second mid-term elections are disastrous for Presidents. See LBJ in 1968, Nixon/Ford in 1974 and Reagan in 1986. There are exceptions, like Clinton in 1998.
But here’s a disturbing poll finding from this week, a nugget that the Washington Post called “one very bad number for Obama”: The Post-ABC poll asked whether people trust Obama or the Republicans in Congress to do a better job “coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years.” Forty-one percent said they trusted Obama. Forty-one percent said they trusted Republicans in Congress.
Let that sink in. Think about how the Republicans in Congress have done their jobs in recent years: the shutdowns, the shakedowns and the sheer nuttiness. Then tell yourself: Americans trust that crowd just as much as they trust the President.
This reflects, of course, the disastrous debut of Obamacare. Maybe, as some pundits predict, that will be gone and forgotten next November. Maybe not.
Thus far, experience tells us that when Obama is on the ballot, all goes well. Maybe it’s that people just feel good voting for him. But when he’s not on the ballot, look out.
And make no mistake: For better or for worse, the 2014 election will be a referendum on Obama. There is no escaping it. Even worse, there is not a lot that down-ballot candidates, from Senator Kay Hagan down, can do about it.
So, as Democrats enjoy Christmas and prepare for a new year, they need to plan for the worst, hope for the best and work like hell.


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2 comments on “2014: Another 2010?

  1. Choo says:

    The Republicans mess up only with the media. Closing down the government is over. The long term effects, well, there are none. What actually happens when government shuts down, well nothing really crazy. No one loses their healthcare, no one loses their doctor, no one loses their hospital. When Democrats screw up, things happen. Those things don’t go away. Democrats get the good vibes while the money last on all the give aways they create, but now that the money is gone and this latest give away has hit, middle class citizens will have to pay and pay, every day, every week, every month and yes every year. Don’t worry we can insure 35 million more people and it won’t cost a dime more. Really. Gary you might have just seen the light just a step or so ahead of your commrades. What do we do when we run out of other peoples money is a real problem. Not like shutting down the Washington monument. When people have their insurance cancelled, they are forced into other doctors, their new costs for insurance tripple. You really can’t insure 35 million more people for not a dime more. Really somewhere there in the back of your mind, you knew that the Obama promise was a pipe dream.

  2. Reaganite says:

    The Democrats seem to be doing everything they can to make 2014 another 2010. The very same killer issue, Obamacare, is back on the scene in a big way. Republicans blew 2012 by nominating for president the one candidate incapable of being able to use this issue, due to his own record.

    Beltway Republicans, however, are not as bright on winning in 2014 as they were in 2010, and that is what threatens to screw things up. Their War on Conservatives, and constant attacks on conservatives and the Tea Party threaten to derail Republican chances. According to detailed analysis by Sean Trende, co-author of Almanac of American Politics, three million white Republicans who came out for McCain, stayed home for Romney, which cost us the election. People like McConnell and Boehner are hard at work turning off the base for 2014, and that is a bigger threat to GOP victory than anything the Democrats are doing.

    Policywise, with our ”leadership” constantly caving in and selling out on one key budget / debt fight after another, and even on defunding Obamacare, many conservative voters do not believe them any more when they talk about overturning Obamacare. In 2010, voters trusted Republicans on that issue, but Boehner and McConnell have created a huge trust deficit for 2014.

    The most devastating thing for derailing GOP prospects for 2014, however, are the clear signs that Boehner wants to push through amnesty for illegal aliens in the 2014 election year. That would turn off the base even more than the dilly-dallying on budget and debt and Obamacare issues. It would be a death wish for Republican election prospects, but I am afraid that Boehner will actually do it. That would be the biggest gift Boehner could give the Democrats and the most counterproductive thing he could ever do for his own party. It might even spur formation of a conservative third party, which would be an even bigger gift to Democrats by splitting the oppostion.

    Republicans are burdened by moronic leaders in Washington, who seem determined to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory, and that is the Democrats ace in the hole. I wish it was different, but it isn’t.

    Oh. and Rucho is very much an establishment Republican, NOT a Tea Partier.

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