We’re all drowning in polls, but still thirsting for reliable data about North Carolina voters this crucial election year.

So, four of us (see below) did our own poll – an in-depth online survey of 1,069 North Carolina voters about Trump, the 2026 and 2028 elections, and a broad range of issues. We found:

• Trump’s support has fallen sharply in North Carolina. He is deeply unpopular with Independents. A majority of all voters, 55%, have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 55% disapprove of the job he’s doing as President.
• Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley in the Senate race 50% to 40%.
• Voters rate Josh Stein positively and approve of the job he is doing as Governor.
• In the 2028 presidential election, North Carolina will be up for grabs and a crucial swing state. 42% say they will support the Democratic nominee and 42% say they will support the Republican nominee.
• Majorities do not trust the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency (ICE), do not believe recent actions in North Carolina have made the state safer, do not believe the federal government should have absolute power when it comes to immigration enforcement, and do not find the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis justified.
• Democrats have an opportunity to make election gains in the state in 2026 and 2028. Voters hold negative views of the Republican-controlled state legislature. Democrats have powerful positive messages in legislative races.

The four of us who did the poll are:

• Sam Hunt of Burlington, who is no relation to Governor Jim Hunt, but was a key supporter of the Governor, served as his Secretary of Transportation from 1993-1995 and was a Democratic member of the state House from 1985-1992. Sam, who wants to get back to where people of different views and different parties work together for the good of the state and country, paid for the poll. He had many ideas about it – some great and some not. But he trusted us to do it right.
• Stephen Clermont, head of polling at Change Research in Washington, DC, who conducted the survey. I’ve known Stephen since the 1990s, when he worked with my friend Harrison Hickman, Governor Hunt’s pollster in the 1990s. Change Research does high-quality, affordable polling for Democrats.
• Tucker Middleton, a bright young star in the Democratic sky. I met her when we both worked for Clay Aiken’s unsuccessful congressional campaign in 2014. She’s now a principal in the national media firm Putnam Partners, which produced ads for Roy Cooper, Rachel Hunt and Jeff Jackson. Tucker recently moved back to Raleigh, where she grew up.
• Yours truly. For longer than many voters have been alive, I’ve been trying to get good people elected in my home state.

We did the poll because it’s hard to get good data about public opinion.

Polls released publicly by campaigns and political groups are suspect; they’re trying to raise money, get clicks or shape a narrative.

Surveys done by colleges and universities are good, but few of the people involved have experience using polls in campaigns.

This poll is an independent project – our work alone. We didn’t coordinate with the Democratic Party or any candidate or committee.

And all the results are available to anybody.

Stephen’s poll summary is here. The topline questions and statewide results are here. The detailed crosstabs are here. (The margin of error is 3.1%.)

In the crosstabs, you’ll find respondents’ answers – in their own words – to open-ended questions. It’s like a focus group with 1,000-plus people.

I’ll be writing more about the results in coming days. Your questions and comments are welcome.