The Senate Race
2010-05-17 - by
Maybe I was wrong.
After the primary, I didn’t see how Cal Cunningham could come from nine points back.
Elaine Marshall’s campaign manager, Thomas Mills, is trying to cut off Cunningham’s cash by sending out a memo saying he can’t win. The Cunningham campaign is pushing back, trying to reload his donor base. The Public Policy Poll that showed the runoff tied helps him.
Both campaigns are in a money primary for now. They’re chasing scarce dollars so they can chase scarce voters.
The problem is figuring out who will vote. Turnout June 22 may be only 150,000 – about 5 percent.
Normally you look at past behavior to predict who will vote. But we have no recent statewide runoffs on which to base predictions.
So it’s a hard race to poll – and predict. Cunningham could win.
Posted in General, North Carolina - Democrats
The Senate Race
2010-05-17/
Maybe I was wrong.
After the primary, I didn’t see how Cal Cunningham could come from nine points back.
Elaine Marshall’s campaign manager, Thomas Mills, is trying to cut off Cunningham’s cash by sending out a memo saying he can’t win. The Cunningham campaign is pushing back, trying to reload his donor base. The Public Policy Poll that showed the runoff tied helps him.
Both campaigns are in a money primary for now. They’re chasing scarce dollars so they can chase scarce voters.
The problem is figuring out who will vote. Turnout June 22 may be only 150,000 – about 5 percent.
Normally you look at past behavior to predict who will vote. But we have no recent statewide runoffs on which to base predictions.
So it’s a hard race to poll – and predict. Cunningham could win.
Posted in General, North Carolina - Democrats