It is true that the presidential race – in both parties – has seen numerous twists, turns, surprises and swings in momentum.
But it is also true that the fundamental dynamic of both races is the same today as a year ago.
For Democrats, the question is still who will make it a two-person race with Hillary Clinton.
Clinton is stumbling in Iowa and New Hampshire. But her name and money will keep her alive until Super Duper Tuesday in February.
Obama is surging, and Edwards is still lurking. Don’t rule out the possibility of them finishing one-two, or two-one, in Iowa.
Clinton would rather have Edwards win Iowa. Her campaign thinks he would be more vulnerable because, unlike Obama, he has no money to fight back against her attack machine in January.
For Republicans, the question is still whether anybody can save the party from George Bush’s eight years.
Every one of their candidates is still flawed. Giuliani is still too liberal and New York. Romney is still too big a flip-flopper and, now, too Mormon-strange. McCain is still too independent. Thompson is still too lazy. Huckabee became the flavor of the month by being just right for evangelical Christians, but the more he’s in the oven the flakier he gets.
So we just have to wait three more weeks for the caucus-goers in Iowa and voters in New Hampshire to give us our choices for the next President.
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