The Elephant in the Corner
April 5, 2011 - by
Decades ago I attended a meeting on redistricting over at State Republican headquarters and a bright, sharp young man whipped out a stack of maps of Congressional Districts and happily announced he had figured out a way to create three minority districts in North Carolina.
Then he whipped out more maps of State House and Senate District maps and it was the same story again – he merrily explained how he’d created a raft of minority districts (where, as he put it, African-Americans who voted staunchly Democratic would be clustered together) which would inevitably mean all the other districts would be more Republican.
His logic was flawless and when he said – triumphantly – that President George Bush Senior’s Justice Department (which had to approve all those maps under the Voting Rights Act) not only thought minority districts were a good idea but was insisting legislators create as many of them as possible smiles broke out across the room.
Then I said, Am I the only one here who thinks drawing Congressional Districts based on racial quotas may not be the best idea on earth?
I was.
And that’s redistricting: It’s raw, hardball politics and the biggest fight this year in state legislature isn’t going to be over the budget or people carrying concealed handguns in restaurants it’s going to be legislators fighting over drawing their own districts. Blood will be shed.
The current canon among Senate Republicans – led by the happily partisan redistricting chairman “Wild Bob” Rucho – is they’re about to lock down their hold on the State Senate for a decade. If that sounds too good to be true, well, it probably is.
The first hard-fact for Republicans have to face – when it comes to redistricting – is the last election was a fluke. The world didn’t change. Instead it just gyrated on its political axis and we enjoyed one of those pleasant once in a blue moon elections – like 1980 and 1994 – where a skewed turnout and an unpopular Democrat in the White House led to voters electing just about every Republican in sight.
But we’re not due another election like that for roughly fourteen years so the GOP happily figuring it can gerrymander itself into lead-pipe control of the State Senate for a decade may be a bit optimistic.
There’s also a worse scenario for Republicans: They could be running in the same districts in 2012 they ran in last election. Democrats have plenty of ways to see that happens.
For instance, passing a bill to redraw State House and Senate Districts is going to be the toughest, most bruising brutal battle in the legislature this year. Legislators, naturally, care a lot more about their districts than they do the budget – redistricting will split the Republican Caucuses with panicky legislators grasping for the last handful of votes they think may save them.
Then as soon as the fighting’s done and a plan is passed the Democrats are going to sue the chops off everyone in sight to stop the state’s implementing it and those lawsuits are going to be tortuous, slow-moving and time-consuming – which is just what the Democrats have in mind.
Plus, President Obama’s Justice Department also has to approve the Republican’s redistricting maps and Obama’s lawyers have every reason to drag their feet too and before all is said and done we may get a lesson in redistricting Chicago style.
In other words the Democrats plan is to delay so there is no redistricting this election – then hope they have a majority in the next legislature.
So, naturally, the best way for Republicans to stymie Democrats to get their maps approved before the 2012 election is to pass them as quickly as possible early in this legislative session but they have decided not to do that. Why? Well if you’re a Republican Senate or House leader (say like Senate leader Tom Apodaca who’s urging his fellow legislators to vote for Duke Power’s bill to raise electric rates) it’s a lot easier to whip the other members of your caucus into line before you redraw their districts that it is afterwards – because afterwards you’re likely to have some unhappy fellow Republicans on your hands who you’ve made enemies for life.
And there’s one more fact Senate redistricters have to figure out.
Last election, Republicans picked up six Senate seats in the east and three in the west but, now, it turns out the population has moved out of these districts and into Raleigh and Charlotte. So no matter how tirelessly Republican Senators work at gerrymandering there are going to be fewer districts in the east and west and if you’re a Republican Senator who won in one of those rural Democratic districts because of the biggest Republican sweep in two decades you face a hard fact of your own – your district may not get a lot better.
The Elephant in the Corner
April 5, 2011/
Decades ago I attended a meeting on redistricting over at State Republican headquarters and a bright, sharp young man whipped out a stack of maps of Congressional Districts and happily announced he had figured out a way to create three minority districts in North Carolina.
Then he whipped out more maps of State House and Senate District maps and it was the same story again – he merrily explained how he’d created a raft of minority districts (where, as he put it, African-Americans who voted staunchly Democratic would be clustered together) which would inevitably mean all the other districts would be more Republican.
His logic was flawless and when he said – triumphantly – that President George Bush Senior’s Justice Department (which had to approve all those maps under the Voting Rights Act) not only thought minority districts were a good idea but was insisting legislators create as many of them as possible smiles broke out across the room.
Then I said, Am I the only one here who thinks drawing Congressional Districts based on racial quotas may not be the best idea on earth?
I was.
And that’s redistricting: It’s raw, hardball politics and the biggest fight this year in state legislature isn’t going to be over the budget or people carrying concealed handguns in restaurants it’s going to be legislators fighting over drawing their own districts. Blood will be shed.
The current canon among Senate Republicans – led by the happily partisan redistricting chairman “Wild Bob” Rucho – is they’re about to lock down their hold on the State Senate for a decade. If that sounds too good to be true, well, it probably is.
The first hard-fact for Republicans have to face – when it comes to redistricting – is the last election was a fluke. The world didn’t change. Instead it just gyrated on its political axis and we enjoyed one of those pleasant once in a blue moon elections – like 1980 and 1994 – where a skewed turnout and an unpopular Democrat in the White House led to voters electing just about every Republican in sight.
But we’re not due another election like that for roughly fourteen years so the GOP happily figuring it can gerrymander itself into lead-pipe control of the State Senate for a decade may be a bit optimistic.
There’s also a worse scenario for Republicans: They could be running in the same districts in 2012 they ran in last election. Democrats have plenty of ways to see that happens.
For instance, passing a bill to redraw State House and Senate Districts is going to be the toughest, most bruising brutal battle in the legislature this year. Legislators, naturally, care a lot more about their districts than they do the budget – redistricting will split the Republican Caucuses with panicky legislators grasping for the last handful of votes they think may save them.
Then as soon as the fighting’s done and a plan is passed the Democrats are going to sue the chops off everyone in sight to stop the state’s implementing it and those lawsuits are going to be tortuous, slow-moving and time-consuming – which is just what the Democrats have in mind.
Plus, President Obama’s Justice Department also has to approve the Republican’s redistricting maps and Obama’s lawyers have every reason to drag their feet too and before all is said and done we may get a lesson in redistricting Chicago style.
In other words the Democrats plan is to delay so there is no redistricting this election – then hope they have a majority in the next legislature.
So, naturally, the best way for Republicans to stymie Democrats to get their maps approved before the 2012 election is to pass them as quickly as possible early in this legislative session but they have decided not to do that. Why? Well if you’re a Republican Senate or House leader (say like Senate leader Tom Apodaca who’s urging his fellow legislators to vote for Duke Power’s bill to raise electric rates) it’s a lot easier to whip the other members of your caucus into line before you redraw their districts that it is afterwards – because afterwards you’re likely to have some unhappy fellow Republicans on your hands who you’ve made enemies for life.
And there’s one more fact Senate redistricters have to figure out.
Last election, Republicans picked up six Senate seats in the east and three in the west but, now, it turns out the population has moved out of these districts and into Raleigh and Charlotte. So no matter how tirelessly Republican Senators work at gerrymandering there are going to be fewer districts in the east and west and if you’re a Republican Senator who won in one of those rural Democratic districts because of the biggest Republican sweep in two decades you face a hard fact of your own – your district may not get a lot better.