Out-organized?
2011-04-05 - by
State GOP Chair Robin Hayes says President Obama carried North Carolina in 2008 because of simple political mechanics. He told McClatchey reporters:
“The president and his group did a much better job of organizing through the Internet, through social networking, through every possible means to identify and get their folks to the polls. They outworked and outmaneuvered us in the last election. That is not going to happen this time.”
This reflects the belief, common among party officials, that their turnout programs decide elections.
I don’t believe it for a minute.
Here’s what turns out voters: Good candidates with a good message attuned to the times.
Oh, a good ground game might make a point or two difference. Might even have made the difference for Obama in 2008.
But he was that close only because his candidacy excited and engaged millions of new voters nationally.
Today, those young – and not-so-young – idealists who were excited in 2008 may be too beaten down by a bad economy and the natural frustrations of politics to get excited again.
Also, this time Obama may not have the benefit of moderate voters turning to him as they did when it looked like the economy was about to collapse just before the election in 2008.
On the other hand, the only Republicans who appear capable of stirring excitement also stir countervailing fear and loathing (Palin, Bachmann).
As time goes on, the chemistry of the 2012 campaign will take shape. Just don’t make any bets based on who you think will do the better job organizing through social media. That follows public opinion; it doesn’t shape it.
Out-organized?
2011-04-05/
State GOP Chair Robin Hayes says President Obama carried North Carolina in 2008 because of simple political mechanics. He told McClatchey reporters:
“The president and his group did a much better job of organizing through the Internet, through social networking, through every possible means to identify and get their folks to the polls. They outworked and outmaneuvered us in the last election. That is not going to happen this time.”
This reflects the belief, common among party officials, that their turnout programs decide elections.
I don’t believe it for a minute.
Here’s what turns out voters: Good candidates with a good message attuned to the times.
Oh, a good ground game might make a point or two difference. Might even have made the difference for Obama in 2008.
But he was that close only because his candidacy excited and engaged millions of new voters nationally.
Today, those young – and not-so-young – idealists who were excited in 2008 may be too beaten down by a bad economy and the natural frustrations of politics to get excited again.
Also, this time Obama may not have the benefit of moderate voters turning to him as they did when it looked like the economy was about to collapse just before the election in 2008.
On the other hand, the only Republicans who appear capable of stirring excitement also stir countervailing fear and loathing (Palin, Bachmann).
As time goes on, the chemistry of the 2012 campaign will take shape. Just don’t make any bets based on who you think will do the better job organizing through social media. That follows public opinion; it doesn’t shape it.