At his rallies Donald Trump roars about the might of his base – in his eyes it’s the key to his defeating Joe Biden. So he tweets (to his base) how he has the highest approval rating among Republicans of any President, even Lincoln – but Trump’s calculation may boomerang: If every Republican Trumpster in North Carolina goes to the polls and votes it’s not enough to elect Trump. It’s just 30% of the vote.

Even worse: Trump’s Republican ‘base’ is smaller – an eyelash smaller here in North Carolina and decidedly smaller elsewhere – than Joe Biden’s Democratic base. In a war between the Pro-Trumpsters and Anti-Trumpsters, even here in North Carolina, Joe Biden has a slight edge. Which means Independents – who shun marching in lockstep with either Trump or Biden – decide Trump’s fate.

Why doesn’t Trump see that?

His eyes are glued on his base.

A born showman, a celebrity New Yorker who enjoys the limelight and used the limelight to make a fortune, Trump’s pride shimmers when he tweets Republicans love him more than Lincoln and suffers bruises and cuts when he comes face-to-face with the scowls and sighs of Independents.

Unfortunately, the Independents Trump needs to win don’t like him – but there is a glimmer of good news: They don’t like Joe Biden either.