Independents blame both Republicans and Democrats for the political mess in Washington and, back when Obama was President, since they blamed Republicans least they voted for Republicans. But, now, with Republicans in power, Independents blame Democrats least – and vote for Democrats.

These three national trends – Democratic turnout up, Republican turnout down, and Independents favoring Democrats – are lifting Democratic candidates this election. George Holding’s race is an example: Holding is better known than his opponent, Linda Coleman, but neither is well-known – which means the national trends are determining which candidate many people are voting for – which explains why Holding, who has won in the past by 13 or 14 points, is in a close race this election.

The solution for Holding – the way he can overcome the Blue Moon trends – is issues. Since Independents and undecided voters aren’t enamored with either Republicans or Democrats, by debating the issues he and Coleman disagree on, Holding can give voters reasons not to vote for Linda Coleman. Which issues? Coleman’s support for Sanctuary Cities, her support for repealing the tax cuts and raising taxes, the threat that a Democratic Congress would raise taxes and increase government regulations, ending the economic recovery, and Coleman’s evasiveness when she was asked about her stand on ICE are examples.

One final caveat: These are the trends in this election now. And they’ll probably be the trends on election day. But, in politics, the unexpected happens. And, sometimes, when it does it turns the political world upside down again.