Fifty years ago Barry Goldwater defeated the Republican Establishment to become the Republican nominee then ran head-on into Lyndon Johnson – but Goldwater’s defeat wasn’t the end of the story; in the fullness of time the ‘true believers’ who elected Goldwater found a Knight on a White Horse and in 1980 Ronald Reagan won then the Berlin Wall fell and that chapter of American history closed.

During the 2010, 2012 and 2014 elections Republican leaders promised the faithful that electing Republicans meant less government, less debt, and stopping Obamacare dead in its tracks but after they won control of the House then the Senate nothing changed: Obama whipped them at every turn. But it wasn’t their defeats that undid the Establishment, it was how they lost: Fighting the good fight and getting beat is one thing but cutting a deal and not putting up much of a fight is another.

In 2016 three tribes marched into the Republican Presidential Primaries: The Christian Right, Establishment Republicans, and Anti-Establishment Republicans who – as Trump proved – outnumbered both the other two tribes combined. The Anti-Establishment Tribe rallied behind Trump and Trump won and if Trump rolls on to victory in November those folks will celebrate but if he loses they’ll gird for their next war with the Establishment Republicans.

The Establishment has power (in Washington) and the money that comes with power but the Anti-Establishment Tribe has the votes at the ballot box so the question, if Trump loses, is whether the Anti-Establishment Tribe will find a Knight on a White Horse of its own – because if it does, and adds a White Knight to the votes it has at the ballot box, the Establishment Tribe is looking at the same fate as the ‘Rockefeller Republicans’ after the 1964 election.