If you’re a Republican with an eye on the next election you’re searching for signs and reading tea leaves, wondering, What are the chances we’ll lose?
The signs that measure President Trump’s strength – his Favorable rating and his Job Approval – are all troubling: Swing voters dislike the President by two to one.
Compounding that worry, 2018 is an off-year election: Turnout is sure to drop. Because a lot of people only vote in Presidential elections. So, next election, whose voters are more likely to vote? Yours or your opponents?
Democrats disapprove of President Trump overwhelmingly: By 98 to 2. Their dislike is intense – so they’re likely to vote. Republicans, on the other hand, are divided: Almost 70% of the Republicans ‘Strongly Approve’ of Donald Trump but the rest – almost 30% – only ‘Somewhat Approve’ or Disapprove. It’s likely the ‘Strongly Approve’ of Trump voters will vote – but will the other Republicans abandon you and stay home?
The number of Republicans who ‘Strongly Approve’ of Trump is also dropping – and has been since he was sworn in last January. Another troubling sign.
Republicans won four straight elections with Obama in the White House but it wasn’t because voters discovered the moral excellence of Republicans: They were voting against Obama. Ask yourself: Next election could they be voting against Trump?
So what do Republicans do? Abandon Trump? That’s unlikely. Because of another knotty problem: There’re 240 Republicans in the House of Representatives in Washington and eighty of them have been targeted by the National Democratic Party for defeat. But the other 160 are in such safe Republican districts the Democrats won’t waste even a minute trying to defeat them.
And in those 160 Districts there’s only one election that matters: The Republican Primary. And with 70% of the Republicans voting in those primaries ‘Strongly Approving’ of Donald Trump there’s little or no chance those 180 Congressmen will throw Trump over the side – and risk being defeated in a primary.
Which leaves eighty lonely Republican Congressmen who’re caught between a rock and a hard place, facing tough choices: Do they step away from Donald Trump and risk being hammered in a primary or do they stand with Trump and risk being hammered by Independents in the General Election?