Polls and Guesses
January 2, 2012 - by
NBC News and Marist University have released an 11th hour poll in Iowa – in the last four weeks 19% of the voters have switched candidates, almost half going to Rick Santorum with most of the rest splitting between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.
|
|
Ballot
|
Change
|
|
Romney
|
23%
|
+4
|
|
Paul
|
21%
|
+2
|
|
Santorum
|
15%
|
+9
|
|
Perry
|
14%
|
+4
|
|
Gingrich
|
13%
|
-15
|
|
Bachmann
|
6%
|
-1
|
|
Huntsman
|
2%
|
0
|
|
Undecided
|
7%
|
-2
|
Now, traditionally Iowa begins a winnowing out process where struggling candidates withdraw and right now, it looks like that’s likely to be Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachmann and John Huntsman – so who gains their votes?
When asked who their second choice would be Gingrich voters said:
|
Second Choice
|
|
|
Romney
|
38%
|
|
Perry
|
24%
|
|
Santorum
|
17%
|
|
Paul
|
5%
|
Bachmann and Huntsman voters said:
|
Second Choice
|
|
|
Santorum
|
31%
|
|
Romney
|
28%
|
|
Perry
|
24%
|
|
Paul
|
11%
|
So, once the smoke clears, no one ‘runs the table’ but Romney gains the most.
|
Romney
|
+7
|
|
Perry
|
+5
|
|
Santorum
|
+4.5
|
|
Paul
|
+1.5
|
Next the pollster asked voters, Which candidates are not acceptable to you as the Republican nominee? Romney was most acceptable. Ron Paul was least acceptable.
|
|
Acceptable
|
Somewhat Acceptable
|
Total
|
Not
Acceptable
|
|
Romney
|
50
|
27
|
77
|
21
|
|
Perry
|
44
|
29
|
73
|
24
|
|
Santorum
|
49
|
22
|
71
|
22
|
|
Paul
|
35
|
21
|
57
|
41
|
And who do Gingrich voters say is unacceptable to them?
|
Paul
|
61%
|
|
Perry
|
39%
|
|
Romney
|
38%
|
|
Santorum
|
23%
|
And Bachmann voters?
|
Paul
|
50%
|
|
Romney
|
44%
|
|
Perry
|
29%
|
|
Santorum
|
14%
|
So Mitt Romney may be stuck around 25% of the vote but it doesn’t look like he’s ‘capped’ – in fact, he gains the most if Bachmann, Gingrich and Huntsman withdraw.
Santorum has the momentum and if Gingrich and Bachmann withdraw he stands to gain as much, or maybe even a bit more, than Perry but he needs a three way race with Romney and Paul – not a four way race including Perry. Santorum’s other advantage is he’s moving most with more conservative voters – which is the right place to move in the primaries.
For Rick Perry, there’re surprising signs of hope – he’s moved up as much as Romney and as a ‘second choice’ he matches Santorum; plus, he knows, after Iowa Santorum’s going to get the same scrutiny Bachman and Cain and Gingrich got earlier and if Santorum tanks his voters second choice is: Rick Perry.
Oddly, Gingrich and Bachmann withdrawing helps Ron Paul very little. And with 41% of the voters saying he’s unacceptable as a nominee he’s trapped beneath a low ceiling.
Posted in General, National Republicans
Polls and Guesses
January 2, 2012/
NBC News and Marist University have released an 11th hour poll in Iowa – in the last four weeks 19% of the voters have switched candidates, almost half going to Rick Santorum with most of the rest splitting between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.
|
|
Ballot
|
Change
|
|
Romney
|
23%
|
+4
|
|
Paul
|
21%
|
+2
|
|
Santorum
|
15%
|
+9
|
|
Perry
|
14%
|
+4
|
|
Gingrich
|
13%
|
-15
|
|
Bachmann
|
6%
|
-1
|
|
Huntsman
|
2%
|
0
|
|
Undecided
|
7%
|
-2
|
Now, traditionally Iowa begins a winnowing out process where struggling candidates withdraw and right now, it looks like that’s likely to be Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachmann and John Huntsman – so who gains their votes?
When asked who their second choice would be Gingrich voters said:
|
Second Choice
|
|
|
Romney
|
38%
|
|
Perry
|
24%
|
|
Santorum
|
17%
|
|
Paul
|
5%
|
Bachmann and Huntsman voters said:
|
Second Choice
|
|
|
Santorum
|
31%
|
|
Romney
|
28%
|
|
Perry
|
24%
|
|
Paul
|
11%
|
So, once the smoke clears, no one ‘runs the table’ but Romney gains the most.
|
Romney
|
+7
|
|
Perry
|
+5
|
|
Santorum
|
+4.5
|
|
Paul
|
+1.5
|
Next the pollster asked voters, Which candidates are not acceptable to you as the Republican nominee? Romney was most acceptable. Ron Paul was least acceptable.
|
|
Acceptable
|
Somewhat Acceptable
|
Total
|
Not
Acceptable
|
|
Romney
|
50
|
27
|
77
|
21
|
|
Perry
|
44
|
29
|
73
|
24
|
|
Santorum
|
49
|
22
|
71
|
22
|
|
Paul
|
35
|
21
|
57
|
41
|
And who do Gingrich voters say is unacceptable to them?
|
Paul
|
61%
|
|
Perry
|
39%
|
|
Romney
|
38%
|
|
Santorum
|
23%
|
And Bachmann voters?
|
Paul
|
50%
|
|
Romney
|
44%
|
|
Perry
|
29%
|
|
Santorum
|
14%
|
So Mitt Romney may be stuck around 25% of the vote but it doesn’t look like he’s ‘capped’ – in fact, he gains the most if Bachmann, Gingrich and Huntsman withdraw.
Santorum has the momentum and if Gingrich and Bachmann withdraw he stands to gain as much, or maybe even a bit more, than Perry but he needs a three way race with Romney and Paul – not a four way race including Perry. Santorum’s other advantage is he’s moving most with more conservative voters – which is the right place to move in the primaries.
For Rick Perry, there’re surprising signs of hope – he’s moved up as much as Romney and as a ‘second choice’ he matches Santorum; plus, he knows, after Iowa Santorum’s going to get the same scrutiny Bachman and Cain and Gingrich got earlier and if Santorum tanks his voters second choice is: Rick Perry.
Oddly, Gingrich and Bachmann withdrawing helps Ron Paul very little. And with 41% of the voters saying he’s unacceptable as a nominee he’s trapped beneath a low ceiling.
Posted in General, National Republicans