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How bad are the new Republican legislative maps?

An analysis by the Campaign Legal Center says Republicans would give themselves a “large and durable” advantage in the districts”

“Assuming a statewide uniform swing in the vote, in order for there to be a Republican majority in the House, Republicans will only need a statewide vote of 45.7 percent. By contrast, Democrats would need 54.8 percent of the vote to get a majority in the House.”

Heads I win, tails you lose.

Typically, Republicans respond by saying: “Democrats did it too.” Democrats should say: “It was wrong then and it’s wrong now. It’s time for a change.”

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When winds howl and waters rise, political careers can soar – or sink. And elections can turn upside down.

The fall of George W. Bush began the day in 2005 when he flew over Katrina-ravaged New Orleans, looking distant and detached. He never recovered. Nor did New Orleans.

On the other hand, even a scoundrel like Chris Christie looked like a hero after he responded aggressively to Hurricane Sandy. (Then he started shutting down bridges and snarling traffic.)

A Washington Post story profiles “7 politicians whose careers were broken — or made — by massive storms.” One expert calls storm responses “leadership pop quizzes.”

Now, in Texas and Louisiana, we’re seeing people suffering the worst. And we’re seeing people – heroic volunteers and first responders – at their best. So I’ll give Trump a pass for now. National unity and all that, you know. No cracks about his hats (available from his campaign at $40) or Melania’s heels. Let’s see if he can do one thing right.

Governor Jim Hunt was the master of disasters. He had genuine empathy for storm victims, and he relentlessly pushed government agencies to do more. He was never satisfied that people were getting enough help.

In 1996, Hurricane Fran showed how natural disasters can overwhelm elections. Fran hit in September, when Hunt was running for his fourth term against Robin Hayes. The storm knocked much of the state winding for weeks at the peak of the campaign. Nobody cared about politics. Hunt took charge of the response – and the TV coverage. Hayes got blown away.

Last year, Hurricane Matthew nearly saved hapless Pat McCrory. He won votes with his aggressive response – and TV appearances. Plus, the floods kept a lot of Democrats from voting.

On Roy Cooper’s first day as Governor, he put on the requisite work shirt, oversaw a snowstorm response and was all over TV. More people watched him than ever would have watched his inaugural speech.

The rules are simple. Show up. Show you care. And never stop pushing to help people.

It’s why you’re there: To help people who are at the low point of their lives.

Posted in: General
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The one thing you prayed for and lusted after in a political campaign in the old days was to catch your opponent in a lie – because a lie (caught on videotape) was as close to sure death as there was in politics.

Back in 1984 I thought we had a pretty good chance of catching Governor Hunt in a fib during a debate – it wasn’t that Hunt was a congenial teller of tales but he did have a way of holding his finger to the wind and shifting his positions with the wind. But the first time I suggested to Jesse that we should hold a mock debate he said, What for? I debate on the Senate floor all the time.

We finally had one practice debate that started at 11:00 o’clock – ten minutes later my phone rang and Jesse growled, I’m going to hand this phone to David – you to tell him to cut out the cheap shots. David was the researcher who was playing Governor Hunt.

I asked, What cheap shots? and Jesse snapped, I’ve cast ten thousand votes. How am I supposed to remember one vote I cast seven years ago?  

David walked into my office the next morning carrying a video tape – and I watched the practice debate: He asked, Senator, in 1977 you voted for a bill that cut school lunches for young children. How on earth did that make sense? and Jesse turned beet-red, pointed his finger straight at the TV cameraman and snapped, Turn off that camera.

The video screen went blank – and I asked David, Is that it? and he nodded, He left after that.

The August night Jesse walked into the first debate in Raleigh a reporter asked, What did you do to prepare for the debate? and Jesse said, I got a haircut, and it was the Lord’s own truth.

When Jesse asked Governor Hunt, You’ve said you support Reagan’s tax cuts and you’ve said you oppose Reagan’s tax cuts – you’ve been on both sides. So, where do you stand? – I thought Jim Hunt was going to come across the table and throttle Jesse: He leaned forward staring a hole in Jesse and snapped, I haven’t changed my position on that issue or any other issues and you know it – and I’ve had enough of your intentionally distorting my record. Next, without taking a breath, Hunt lit into Jesse for voting to raise tobacco taxes.

When the camera swung back to Jesse he frowned, looked down, pursed his lips – all he needed to say was, Governor, it’s all on videotape: You told a TV reporter here in Raleigh you supported Reagan’s tax cuts and then you voted against the same tax cuts at the National Governor’s Association – but Jesse hadn’t done his homework.

That night, flying back to Washington, when Jesse called from the airplane I started to tell him how badly he’d lost the debate but before I could say a word he said: I took an old-fashioned whipping tonight. I’m ashamed to go home to Dot. All I said was, Well, there’s no point in gilding the lily. But we’ll get ‘em next time.

Looking back, the unusual fact isn’t how Jesse lost that debate to Hunt – it’s that, thirty years later, when a politician tells a whopper people shrug and say, He’s my man – and I’m for him. And that’s it. It’s like a devil rewired our chemistry. There’s no reckoning. But it wasn’t always that way.

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My post Clicking The N&O got as many likes, clicks and comments as anything lately. As I understand today’s journalism, that means do another post on it.

Here we go.

One TAP reader was struck by John Drescher’s explanation of Barry Saunders’ departure. John wrote:

“We’ve let go of some features that had a limited digital readership. We’ve dropped the weekly news quiz; the Thumbs Up youth achievement page; the Past Times column from our archives; and Barry Saunders’ column. We’ve eliminated the metro columnist job because those columns weren’t resonating with our digital readers.”

Said the reader:

“Poor Barry. Thrown in and tossed out with the weekly news quiz, Thumbs Up and Past Times. That smarts.”

Another TAP reader recalled how newspapers used to deride TV stations for running audience-pleasing shows that entertained instead of educating and enlightening. TV was a captive of audience ratings, the newspapers said loftily.

Same for politicians and polls. How many editorials have you read that called on politicians to do what’s right, not what polls say is popular?

Oh well. Live and learn.

Finally, a subscriber to the print paper realized that since she reads and doesn’t click, the N&O doesn’t know what she likes. So now she goes online and clicks the stories she likes. She gets her friends and family to do the same.

Let’s all join in. If you get the print edition, you get digital access. Go online. Click on your favorite stories. Click on your favorite reporters. Click on them five or 10 times, for that matter. Click away. Click to your heart’s content. Tell them what stories they should do tomorrow. Be more powerful than an editor.

Get clicking.

Posted in: General, Raleigh
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So much is happening so fast. So let’s fire away at several juicy targets – er, topics.

Just when you think he can’t get worse, he does. His 77-minute tirade in Phoenix was True Trump. The estimable Economist pegged him for who and what he is: “politically inept, morally barren and temperamentally unfit for office.”

That sums it up pretty good.


Hillary’s creepy feeling

In her new book, “What Happened,” Hillary Clinton said “my skin crawled” when Trump loomed behind her in the debates. She went on, “Do you stay calm, keep smiling and carry on as if he weren’t repeatedly invading your space? Or do you turn, look him in the eye and say loudly and clearly, ‘Back up you creep, get away from me?’”

Right there, she tells us why she lost. If she had told the creep to back off, she would have shown Americans the real person beneath her ever-cautious, carefully calibrated mask. She would have rallied women to her side. She would have won. And spared us this national nightmare.

Sometimes in politics – and it’s always the most important times – you go with your gut.


Bannon abandoned

Democrats celebrated Steve Bannon’s ouster from the White House. But he’s not going away. He could build a Breitbart media empire that out-Foxes Fox. He’ll take his economic-nationalist agenda to war against what he calls Democrats’ “identify politics.” And it may be a winning strategy.

Bannon’s banishment means the Trump White House is in the hands of the Jared- Ivanka-Goldman Sachs-Generals junta. Their agenda is wildly different from Bannon’s. He wants to get out of Afghanistan. He wants to start an economic war on China. He says there’s no military solution to North Korea. He wants to raise taxes on the rich and launch a $1 trillion infrastructure program.

But he and Trump clearly agreed on race. That was enough to win the election. Then Bannon committed the cardinal sin: He eclipsed the Sun King.


Speaking of eclipse, Trump stared straight at it Monday afternoon. That night, he stared straight at the war in Afghanistan – and blinked. He abandoned his promise to get out.

He said “his” generals changed his mind. With all due respect to the generals, neither he nor they answered a question that lingers after 16 years of war. And lingers 50 years after Vietnam: How do we win a war when we can’t tell the good guys from the bad guys?



Thom Tillis regrets that Trump’s “tone” on race, Nazis and Charlottesville is a “distraction” from the real Republican agenda – that is, cutting taxes for the rich, abolishing regulations on polluters and taking away health insurance and any other help for Americans struggling in an often-cold and cruel economy.

Some Democrats also shy away from debating Confederate statues. They worry it will hurt Democrats, like Governor Cooper.

Is it a “distraction”? Or is it The Issue – capital T, capital I?

America is still atoning for the Original Sin of slavery. We’re the land of the free, and we were the home of the slaves. The South fought a Civil War to keep slavery. For generations after, white Southerners brutally suppressed blacks. Today, Republicans disenfranchise African-American voters.

Racism, like a cancer, still infects the body politic. That’s why we need to debate Confederate statues. And that’s why it’s hard.

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A plump boy wearing a hand-made Confederate soldier’s uniform stood by himself alone at the foot of a statue of General Lee, standing straight at attention like a guard – surrounded by protestors waving their fists, index fingers raised, in his face.

Immobile, expressionless, without making a sound, his lip quivered and leaning towards him the protestors waved their fingers closer to his face.  

It was a picture of anger and meanness but there was a glimmer of redemption: The boy never said an unkind word to the protestors and, outnumbering him ten to one, the protestors never tried to lay a hand on him.

Posted in: General, Issues
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Bob Havely, who died August 9 at age 65, was a Jim Hunt alumnus, a multi-faceted political and public affairs consultant, and a good friend to many of us.

Bob was the rare player who could hit from both sides of the plate: He could do both policy and politics. He was issues director for Governor Hunt’s 1984 race against Jesse Helms. He was smart and tenacious, intense and painstaking. Sometimes he drove me crazy. But he cared about and worked for good candidates and causes.

Some he helped: David Price, Bob Etheridge, Tim Valentine; Rufus Edmisten, Mike Easley, Tony Rand, A.B. Swindell, Elaine Marshall, Robin Hudson, Wanda Bryant, Linda McGee, Mark Davis, Sam J. Ervin, IV, Ken Lewis, Britt Cobb, Mickey Michaux, Jim Slattery (KS), Mel Carnahan (MO), Bill Dolan (VA), Joe Checota (WI) and Joe Kohn (PA).

He was a healthcare policy advisor for President Jimmy Carter. During the 1980s, he was director of government relations for Duke University, and he worked with a number of other North Carolina colleges and universities, including High Point University. He was also a lobbyist for Prevent Blindness North Carolina.

We’ll have a gathering to remember Bob from 5 to 7 p.m. Sept. 13 at the Player’s Retreat, where he was a regular.

You can also remember him by donating to Common Cause of North Carolina. Common Cause’s Bob Phillips said, “From serving in the White House, to working as director of government relations at Duke University and advising a wide variety of elected officials, candidates and nonprofit organizations, Bob dedicated his life to the democratic process and education in our state.”

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The General Assembly is redrawing State House and Senate Districts and it’s like the circus came back in town: Six years ago, last time they drew districts, Republican legislators used ‘race’ as one criteria and Democrats sued them. This time Republican legislators said they wouldn’t even look at or go near ‘race’ and the Democrats said, That’s wrong too.  

What kind of sense did that make?

This time, Republicans said they were going to draw districts strictly based on ‘politics’ – which means Republicans are going to look at how well Republican candidates like Trump did in each precinct then draw districts that will elect Republicans: Which means Republicans are going to end up, pretty nearly, in the exact same place where they started out, six years ago. Because packing a district full of Hillary Clinton voters means packing the district with Democrats and African-Americans.

Do Democrats object to ‘political’ redistricting? Yes. But only when Republicans do it. Then they complained loud and long.

But did you hear one legislator – in either party – say politicians ought not to be drawing their own districts?

It’s an old story: Both sides said the other’s the villain. But no one had clean hands.

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In these Trumped-up times, we need good journalism more than ever. Which is why readers of The News & Observer paid careful attention to the recent column by Executive Editor John Drescher on changes there. What he wrote told us three things:

• How much journalism and The N&O are changing,
• How much readers are concerned about the changes, and
• How much editors are concerned about readers’ reactions to the changes.

Readers are concerned that the old wall of separation between news and ads is being replaced by a chart measuring how many clicks stories get and, thereby, how many ads get sold.

Drescher’s column, “On the new N&O menu: Less spinach, more reader-focused coverage,” reassured us that the changes will be positive:

“Starting this week, we’ll be working harder to answer your questions and present the news in a way that is more relevant, with more video and more focus on topics that we know you care about.

“When most of our readership was of the print paper, we never knew with precision how much each story was read. Now we know how much digital readership each story has, and we’ve used that as a guide for which stories we will cover.

“While measuring readership is important to us, it’s not the only factor we’ll consider when deciding what to cover.”

Drescher vowed that the pursuit of digital clicks won’t imperil quality.

“Our core values remain the same. We’ll continue to provide the kind of watchdog reporting that has distinguished The N&O. Check out ‘Jailed to Death,’ our new report on deaths in county jails….We want to give you the news and information that means the most to you in the form and at the times you want it.”

He chided “ink-stained traditionalists” who “worry that we’ll publish nothing but click-bait stories about cats. They (the traditionalists, not the cats) underestimate the intelligence of the readers in this region.”

Well, call me an ink-stained traditionalist. I do worry. Not so much for now, because I know the editors at The N&O today. They are serious, committed journalists.

But they’re under a lot of pressure from business people, bean-counters and click-counters who live on the West Coast. While I trust John Drescher and his colleagues, I don’t know who or what will come after him and them.

Like other ink-stained traditionalists, I’m concerned by stories like this one in The Atlantic, “When Silicon Valley Took Over Journalism: The pursuit of digital readership broke the New Republic—and an entire industry.”

Franklin Foer wrote about a click-checking device called Chartbeat and its impact:

“Data have turned journalism into a commodity, something to be marketed, tested, calibrated. Perhaps people in the media have always thought this way. But if that impulse existed, it was at least buffered. Journalism’s leaders were vigilant about separating the church of editorial from the secular concerns of business. We can now see the cause for fanaticism about building such a thick wall between the two….

“Journalism has performed so admirably in the aftermath of Trump’s victory that it has grown harder to see the profession’s underlying rot. Now each assignment is subjected to a cost-benefit analysis—will the article earn enough traffic to justify the investment? Sometimes the analysis is explicit and conscious, though in most cases it’s subconscious and embedded in euphemism. Either way, it’s this train of thought that leads editors to declare an idea ‘not worth the effort’ or to worry about whether an article will ‘sink.’ The audience for journalism may be larger than it was before, but the mind-set is smaller.”

PS: Drescher’s column did answer a question that the N&O previously had ducked: Why was Barry Saunders let go Drescher wrote:

“We’ve let go of some features that had a limited digital readership. We’ve dropped the weekly news quiz; the Thumbs Up youth achievement page; the Past Times column from our archives; and Barry Saunders’ column. We’ve eliminated the metro columnist job because those columns weren’t resonating with our digital readers.”

In other words, ol’ Barry wasn’t getting enough clicks. The signal to other N&O writers is clear: A popular columnist lost his job because he didn’t embrace digital. You’d better get clicking.

Posted in: General
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The threats landed bam, bam, bam: Kim Jong-un was facing ‘fire and fury,’ we were ‘locked and loaded and ready to go’ and – if Kim uttered one more threat – he’d ‘regret it fast.’

It was pure Trump pyrogenics – and melodrama – but it’s getting old: When Trump walked onto the debate stage two years ago his swagger was funny. He stood out. He wasn’t just another Washington politician. But now watching Trump is like watching a teenager hoping up and down, pointing fingers, calling other students in his 8th grade class ‘goofy,’ ‘kooky,’ ‘wacky,’ and ‘dumb as a rock.’ And people are worn out. They’re ready for a break.

But Trump’s a law unto himself. Irrepressible and mercurial last night in Arizona the boy from Queens was back, pointing fingers and mocking, ‘Little George’ Stephanopoulos.’

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Carter & Gary
Carter Wrenn
Gary Pearce
The Charlotte Observer says: “Carter Wrenn and Gary Pearce don’t see eye-to-eye on many issues. But they both love North Carolina and know its politics inside and out.”
Carter is a Republican. 
Gary is a Democrat.
They met in 1984, during the epic U.S. Senate battle between Jesse Helms and Jim Hunt. Carter worked for Helms and Gary, for Hunt.
Years later, they became friends. They even worked together on some nonpolitical clients.
They enjoy talking about politics. So they started this blog in 2005. 
They’re still talking. And they invite you to join the conversation.
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