What creates a wave election?
Here’s one: In 1988, 1990 and 1992 Congressman David Price, a popular Democratic incumbent in a Democratic district, received over 100,000 votes in each election and won easily. Then, in 1994, a wave election came along that favored Republicans. Democrats didn’t vote and David Price received 76,000 votes and lost by a thousand votes.
That’s the first factor: In a wave election one party’s turnout plummets.
Here’s the second: In 2008, Swing Voters split in a way that allowed Barack Obama to narrowly win North Carolina. But in 2010, those same swing voters did an about-face and overwhelmingly voted against Democratic candidates. And that’s the second factor: Swing voters overwhelmingly vote for one party over the other.
And when both those forces hit in the same election they create a powerful political wave.
In Wisconsin last week there was a State Senate race in a district Donald Trump had won by 17 points – this time a Democratic candidate won the same district by 10 points. That’s a sign of a Democratic wave.
Can a Republican candidate overcome a Democratic wave? Yes. But he has to understand the ground beneath his feet is about to shift. The world around him has changed and he can’t ignore the changes. Re-running last year’s campaign won’t work this year.
The problem is old habits die hard and candidates, like most of us, like to ignore changes.