Hardly anyone likes politicians drawing districts to elect themselves but, to rip apart the Congressional Districts Republicans drew, Judge James Wynn spun a tale full of fictions.
Judge Wynn described the Republican Plan as a vicious extreme ‘partisan gerrymander’ that would assure Republicans win 10 of North Carolina’s 13 Congressional seats for years and cited reams of computer analysis and algorithms and experts he said proved he was right – but his ruse was simple: He only analyzed Obama-era elections from 2010 to 2016, when President Obama’s unpopularity created ‘Trends’ that favored Republicans. In each of those four elections swing voters disapproved of Obama (and Hillary) and voted for Republicans.
The same thing happened with voter turnout in 2010, 2014 and 2016: Voters who disapproved of Obama were fired up and went to the polls while, to give one example, in the 2016 election a drop in African-American turnout hurt every Democratic candidate.
Judge Wynn had carefully arranged the pieces on the chess board (by only analyzing elections where trends favored Republicans) – so he could say the Republican Plan insured 10 Republican Congressmen would be elected and re-elected in election after election.
But would that happen in those same districts in an election where the trends and turnout did not favor Republicans? Data on the General Assembly’s ‘Redistricting Website’ tells the rest of the story.
In 2008, Democrats won the races for Governor, Senator, Attorney General and President in North Carolina.
In that election Kay Hagan carried 8 of the 13 Congressional Districts Judge Wynn claims insure 10 Republican Congressmen will be elected.
Beverly Perdue carried 6 of the 13 districts.
And Roy Cooper? Roy carried every one of them. 13 of 13.
There’re a lot of valid arguments against redistricting but, instead, like a politician, Judge James Wynn choose to spin a tale.