It’s Not the Economy, Stupid

This year’s Republican presidential primaries haven’t been debates about issues. They’ve been about character. Not character as in honesty and integrity. But character as in biography. Who you are. Not where you stand.



Mike Huckabee is an example.



There are, roughly, three groups of voters in the Republican primaries: Evangelicals. Economic Conservatives. And Moderates. Huckabee is a Baptist minister. His biography gave him a natural base among Evangelicals.



Beyond Huckabee, to make a long story short, after stumbling and trying to be all things to all people, Mitt Romney (may have) found his base in Michigan with Economic voters and John McCain has captured the third group: Moderates. McCain also has one strength Romney and Huckabee lack: He’s a war hero – and the most outspoken candidate on the war on terrorism – a combination which cuts across all groups, pulling tiny blocks of voters to him from Huckabee and Romney.



Huckabee also faces a dilemma McCain and Romney don’t. Economic Conservatives and Moderates, to some extent, feel a cultural antipathy toward Evangelicals. Huckabee’s resume has given him a base, but it has also fenced him. That antipathy makes it harder for him to reach out to other voters. Huckabee’s other problem is geographic. As a southerner he might have reached out beyond his base in South Carolina. Instead he ran head on into Fred Thompson.



The next big question won’t be answered until the Florida primary. Will Rudy Giuliani resurrect his flagging campaign? If so, Giuliani becomes a second moderate candidate – a big problem for McCain – splitting his vote.



Lastly, beyond biographies and demographics, there’s money. Filthy lucre. Romney just bought over a million dollars of TV in Florida and if he wants – if he digs deep enough into his own pockets – he can outspend McCain and Huckabee two or three or four to one. That doesn’t automatically mean a Romney victory. But sheer financial firepower can add three or four percentage points to Romney’s vote – enough to edge out McCain, a second time, in Florida.



Beyond Florida money matters another way. The Republican primary is turning into a slugging match. The mystery is which candidate can take the most punches and stay on his feet even with wobbly knees. Romney’s cash – as long as he’s willing to keep pouring it into his own campaign – means he cannot be ‘knocked out’. At worst, even if he loses Florida, Romney’s money allows him to ‘hang around’ and wait for a break or for Huckabee or McCain to make a mistake. At best, he could do a lot more than just endure.



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Carter Wrenn

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It’s Not the Economy, Stupid

This year’s Republican presidential primaries haven’t been debates about issues. They’ve been about character. Not character as in honesty and integrity. But character as in biography. Who you are. Not where you stand.



Mike Huckabee is an example.



There are, roughly, three groups of voters in the Republican primaries: Evangelicals. Economic Conservatives. And Moderates. Huckabee is a Baptist minister. His biography gave him a natural base among Evangelicals.



Beyond Huckabee, to make a long story short, after stumbling and trying to be all things to all people, Mitt Romney (may have) found his base in Michigan with Economic voters and John McCain has captured the third group: Moderates. McCain also has one strength Romney and Huckabee lack: He’s a war hero – and the most outspoken candidate on the war on terrorism – a combination which cuts across all groups, pulling tiny blocks of voters to him from Huckabee and Romney.



Huckabee also faces a dilemma McCain and Romney don’t. Economic Conservatives and Moderates, to some extent, feel a cultural antipathy toward Evangelicals. Huckabee’s resume has given him a base, but it has also fenced him. That antipathy makes it harder for him to reach out to other voters. Huckabee’s other problem is geographic. As a southerner he might have reached out beyond his base in South Carolina. Instead he ran head on into Fred Thompson.



The next big question won’t be answered until the Florida primary. Will Rudy Giuliani resurrect his flagging campaign? If so, Giuliani becomes a second moderate candidate – a big problem for McCain – splitting his vote.



Lastly, beyond biographies and demographics, there’s money. Filthy lucre. Romney just bought over a million dollars of TV in Florida and if he wants – if he digs deep enough into his own pockets – he can outspend McCain and Huckabee two or three or four to one. That doesn’t automatically mean a Romney victory. But sheer financial firepower can add three or four percentage points to Romney’s vote – enough to edge out McCain, a second time, in Florida.



Beyond Florida money matters another way. The Republican primary is turning into a slugging match. The mystery is which candidate can take the most punches and stay on his feet even with wobbly knees. Romney’s cash – as long as he’s willing to keep pouring it into his own campaign – means he cannot be ‘knocked out’. At worst, even if he loses Florida, Romney’s money allows him to ‘hang around’ and wait for a break or for Huckabee or McCain to make a mistake. At best, he could do a lot more than just endure.



Click Here to discuss and comment on this and other articles.

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Carter Wrenn

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