Is Tillis Losing the ‘Base?’
I got a call from a reporter who’d read a poll: Biden and Cal Cunningham each had 47% of the vote in North Carolina; Trump had 47% (tied with Biden) but Thom Tillis only had 40%, seven points behind Cunningham – the reporter asked, There’re a lot of people, a lot of Republicans, voting for Trump but not Tillis. Is Tillis in trouble with the base? I said:
No. At the end of the day those Republicans will vote for Tillis. What matters is Tillis winning swing voters. They’re the ones who may vote for Cunningham.
The reporter wanted to write a story about Trump’s base not voting for Tillis, so he politely shrugged. But think about that: Is a Republican who likes Trump going to vote for Cal Cunningham – and giving Democrats control of the Senate? An Independent who’s voting for Trump might do that in a heartbeat but not a Trump Republican.
Today, in campaigns, everybody zeros in on the base: ‘Trump’s firing up to his base.’ ‘Biden’s base is fired up.’ But what matters about your base is whether it votes and this election it looks like both sides are heading for ballot boxes in droves – and, if that happens, the fate of Thom Tillis and Cal Cunningham ends up in the hands of ticket splitters.
Is Tillis Losing the ‘Base?’
I got a call from a reporter who’d read a poll: Biden and Cal Cunningham each had 47% of the vote in North Carolina; Trump had 47% (tied with Biden) but Thom Tillis only had 40%, seven points behind Cunningham – the reporter asked, There’re a lot of people, a lot of Republicans, voting for Trump but not Tillis. Is Tillis in trouble with the base? I said:
No. At the end of the day those Republicans will vote for Tillis. What matters is Tillis winning swing voters. They’re the ones who may vote for Cunningham.
The reporter wanted to write a story about Trump’s base not voting for Tillis, so he politely shrugged. But think about that: Is a Republican who likes Trump going to vote for Cal Cunningham – and giving Democrats control of the Senate? An Independent who’s voting for Trump might do that in a heartbeat but not a Trump Republican.
Today, in campaigns, everybody zeros in on the base: ‘Trump’s firing up to his base.’ ‘Biden’s base is fired up.’ But what matters about your base is whether it votes and this election it looks like both sides are heading for ballot boxes in droves – and, if that happens, the fate of Thom Tillis and Cal Cunningham ends up in the hands of ticket splitters.