If Obama Wins…
2012-11-06 - by
The baffling question is how Mitt Romney lost. If ever this was a challenger’s race to win, this was it.
The economy is bad. Obama is an activist in an anti-government age. He has never done a good job of selling his record. He was not a great candidate this year. He bombed in the first debate. And, oh yes, he’s African-American.
All that makes me antsy about tonight. But the overwhelming evidence is that Obama will win.
Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight now puts that probability at over 90 percent. And it’s not just Superstorm Sandy, he says, but a slow, steady rebound for Obama over the last month.
Yes, I hear the Republican bluster about momentum and crowd excitement. But George McGovern and Michael Dukakis had big, enthusiastic crowds at the end, too.
Then there’s North Carolina. The Obama campaign wouldn’t have sent Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama to North Carolina the last weekend if it didn’t see a good chance to win here.
Perhaps the worst sign for Romney: Dick Morris predicts he’ll win a landslide. If Dick’s wrong, he’ll be screaming “fraud” by midnight. And raising money on it tomorrow.
If Romney loses, there are two explanations: the damage Obama’s ads did to his brand in the summer and the damage the Tea Party has done to the Republican brand in the last two years.
And if he loses, the Tea Party will be on the warpath to push the GOP even farther right – nationally and in North Carolina.
If Obama Wins…
2012-11-06/
The baffling question is how Mitt Romney lost. If ever this was a challenger’s race to win, this was it.
The economy is bad. Obama is an activist in an anti-government age. He has never done a good job of selling his record. He was not a great candidate this year. He bombed in the first debate. And, oh yes, he’s African-American.
All that makes me antsy about tonight. But the overwhelming evidence is that Obama will win.
Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight now puts that probability at over 90 percent. And it’s not just Superstorm Sandy, he says, but a slow, steady rebound for Obama over the last month.
Yes, I hear the Republican bluster about momentum and crowd excitement. But George McGovern and Michael Dukakis had big, enthusiastic crowds at the end, too.
Then there’s North Carolina. The Obama campaign wouldn’t have sent Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama to North Carolina the last weekend if it didn’t see a good chance to win here.
Perhaps the worst sign for Romney: Dick Morris predicts he’ll win a landslide. If Dick’s wrong, he’ll be screaming “fraud” by midnight. And raising money on it tomorrow.
If Romney loses, there are two explanations: the damage Obama’s ads did to his brand in the summer and the damage the Tea Party has done to the Republican brand in the last two years.
And if he loses, the Tea Party will be on the warpath to push the GOP even farther right – nationally and in North Carolina.