John Edwards has been counting on Iowa to be the spring-board for his Presidential campaign. He’s led there all year. But, last week, without warning the Presidential quicksand shifted beneath his feet. He plummeted from first place to third, dropping fourteen points (in the University of Iowa poll) from 34% in March to 20% now. Suddenly he trails Hillary by 9% and Obama by 7%.

As a result all Edwards high-sounding rhetoric – over the last four years – about not attacking other Democrats bit the dust. At the debate in New Hampshire last Monday night he flailed away at Hillary.

Mitt Romney is headed in the opposite direction in the Republican primaries. With 36% of the vote in Iowa Romney now leads Rudy Giuliani – who may be experiencing the same fate as Edwards – by 20 points. Mike Huckabee – who had virtually no vote two months ago – has risen to 13%, putting him in a dead-heat with Giuliani.

We have not seen any Presidential ads in North Carolina but Romney has been running them steadily in Iowa and New Hampshire for months. And he’s also started ads in South Carolina. Romney’s scenario seems simple: Rewrite a little history to clean up his record on abortion and gay rights in Massachusetts. Move right. Win Iowa and New Hampshire. Which should give him a big edge over Giuliani. Then move on to South Carolina to defeat Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee.

In the Republican Presidential race there are really two elections. The first is a winnowing out election reduce the field to the final two candidates. The second decides the winner.

If Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire its hard not to see him as one of the final two. If he also wins South Carolina – which was the key primary for Republican nominees in 1988, 1996 and 2000 – whoever the other candidate, he will have a big mountain to climb to catch Romney.

The bottom line: Right now, Mitt Romney – not Rudy Giuliani – is looking more and more like the Republican frontrunner.

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