Dissecting the Vote
2013-04-09 - by
Ferrel Guillory & Co. at UNC J-School’s Program on Public Life have taken a discerning deep dive into the 2012 election results – and show why last year reversed the results of 2008 and what lies ahead.
The most interesting finding in the latest DataNet report is how Governor McCrory outperformed Mitt Romney among voters who normally vote Democratic, including urban voters, young voters, African-Americans and self-identified Democrats.
McCrory got 40 percent of voters age 18 to 29 and Romney, 32. Among African-Americans, McCrory won 13 percent and Romney, four. Among voters who identified themselves as a Democrat, McCrory got 15 percent and Romney, eight.
In urban areas (populations over 50,000), McCrory got 48 percent and Romney, 40. Obama won Mecklenburg and Wake counties by as many as 100,000 votes. McCrory won both counties.
McCrory’s performance was impressive. But there’s a warning here. If the Governor becomes seen as part of the Republican legislature’s war on young voters, minorities and cities, he risks losing his 2012 edge.
Another fascinating insight: In 2012, barely half of the state’s voters were native North Carolinians. Forty-nine percent were born elsewhere. According to the Data Net analysis: “Both Romney and McCrory won solid majorities among native North Carolinians and residents who moved in more than 10 years ago. However, among voters who arrived in the past 5-10 years, Obama got a landslide-majority of 62 percent. Among those relatively recent arrivals, McCrory held a 48-45 margin over Dalton.”
Dissecting the Vote
2013-04-09/
Ferrel Guillory & Co. at UNC J-School’s Program on Public Life have taken a discerning deep dive into the 2012 election results – and show why last year reversed the results of 2008 and what lies ahead.
The most interesting finding in the latest DataNet report is how Governor McCrory outperformed Mitt Romney among voters who normally vote Democratic, including urban voters, young voters, African-Americans and self-identified Democrats.
McCrory got 40 percent of voters age 18 to 29 and Romney, 32. Among African-Americans, McCrory won 13 percent and Romney, four. Among voters who identified themselves as a Democrat, McCrory got 15 percent and Romney, eight.
In urban areas (populations over 50,000), McCrory got 48 percent and Romney, 40. Obama won Mecklenburg and Wake counties by as many as 100,000 votes. McCrory won both counties.
McCrory’s performance was impressive. But there’s a warning here. If the Governor becomes seen as part of the Republican legislature’s war on young voters, minorities and cities, he risks losing his 2012 edge.
Another fascinating insight: In 2012, barely half of the state’s voters were native North Carolinians. Forty-nine percent were born elsewhere. According to the Data Net analysis: “Both Romney and McCrory won solid majorities among native North Carolinians and residents who moved in more than 10 years ago. However, among voters who arrived in the past 5-10 years, Obama got a landslide-majority of 62 percent. Among those relatively recent arrivals, McCrory held a 48-45 margin over Dalton.”