North Carolina – Democrats
The T-factor
X-factors are outside forces and events that can upend elections and are beyond the control of candidates and campaigns. Think James Comey’s announcement in the waning days of 2016 that the FBI was again investigating Hillary Clinton’s emails. This year’s X-factor is Trump. But is he magic – or toxic? Clearly, 2016 has him intoxicated.…
Read MoreThey’re cooperating!!
The Raleigh political world is abuzz and agog! The legislature and the Governor are cooperating! Democrats and Republicans are working together on hurricane relief!! Oh, happy day!!! Has a new age dawned? Have we entered an era of bipartisanship, brotherly love and dogs and cats living together? Not so fast, my friend. Pardon my cynicism,…
Read MoreDisaster politics
Governor Cooper excelled at his first three tasks in the wake of Florence: command (resources), communicate (be safe) and comfort (we’re with you for the long haul). Now comes the long haul. And politics. And bureaucracy – federal, state and local. And inevitable human frustration at the pace of relief. Nearly 20 years ago, after…
Read MoreThe Election, a Summary
This year, after four elections with Obama in the White House, the political world has changed. We’re in a Blue Moon election where Democrats are voting heavier than usual and where Republican voter turnout is likely to be lower than usual. Independents blame both Republicans and Democrats for the political mess in Washington and, back…
Read MoreTwo More Issues
More people say yes than no when asked whether they’d vote for George Holding because he supported the Republican tax cuts – but not as many more as you might expect. On the other hand, when asked whether they would support Linda Coleman if they knew she wants to repeal the tax cut and raise…
Read MoreTwo Issues
In George Holding’s poll, we asked voters about several issues he and Linda Coleman disagree on. For example, George Holding opposes Sanctuary Cities and here’s a video of Linda Coleman, at a Democratic forum, saying she supports Sanctuary Cities (at 27:20 into the video). It turns out voters oppose Sanctuary Cities 70% to 22%. Undecided…
Read MoreTwo Unique Groups of Voters
Let’s compare two unique groups of voters. First, people who have high school degrees. African American Democrats in this group already overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump (Approve 10%, Disapprove 85%) and also overwhelmingly vote for Linda Coleman, George Holding’s Democratic opponent. Among the remaining voters with high school degrees, men approve of Trump 79% to 20%…
Read MoreThe Undecided Voters
Let’s look at the Undecided Voters who’ll decide George Holding’s election against Linda Coleman. Fifteen percent of the voters are undecided. They’re Republicans 40%, Democrats 22%, and Independents 38%. When asked whether they would vote for a Republican candidate or a Democratic candidate for Congress (the Generic Ballot question), 48% vote Republican, 28% vote Democrat…
Read MorePicture of Coleman, Picture of Holding
Linda Coleman isn’t well known – her Favorable is 18% and her Unfavorable is 16%. Some Democrats know and like her but most voters don’t know who she is or where she stands on the issues they care about. In June and July, when George Holding ran ads comparing his stand for workfare and for…
Read MoreTwo Super PACs: A Negative Ad and a Positive Ad
In a fallen world the ‘negative’ (the bad thing) has great power, especially in an election where voters are choosing between two candidates they dislike. For example, six years ago, President Obama didn’t win by running ads praising Obama’s accomplishments – he defeated Romney by telling voters Romney was ‘an out-of-touch billionaire.’ And remember ‘Crooked…
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