National Democrats
What a Poll Missed
During Ronald Reagan’s 1976 primary Tom Ellis and I sat in a room listening to Arthur Finkelstein explain his first poll for Reagan in North Carolina – forty years later, sitting in my office across the table from Arthur, I listened to him explain his polls for George Holding. Sadly, a year later, Arthur passed…
Read MorePolitics 101
Imagine for a moment that you’re a Republican candidate running in a down ballot race in a swing district: Your fate is in the hands of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. For example: Turnout. If Democrats vote and Republicans don’t your ship sinks – but there’s not much you can do about that. Biden and…
Read MoreCoronavirus Journal, April 5
Coronavirus first reared its head in China in January but it wasn’t until two months later that HHS placed its first order to stockpile masks. A foible. Oklahoma ordered 16,000 face shields – FEMA sent 120,000. North Carolina ordered 500,000 coveralls – FEMA sent 306. HHS had over 16,000 ventilators in the stockpile – but…
Read MoreA Hard Look and a Prayer
The morning the Japanese sunk our fleet at Pearl Harbor Americans took a hard look at Franklin Roosevelt with one question on their minds: Is he up to the job? After the Stock Market Crash in 1929 the same hard look undid for Hebert Hoover and, during the Iran Hostage Crisis, it sank Jimmy Carter.…
Read MorePart II of Trump’s Plan
Back in 2016 Hillary got a shock during Early Voting – Blacks who’d voted for Obama stayed home and didn’t vote for her. I remember looking at the bleak (for Hillary) numbers: In 2012, when Obama ran, 22% of the voters in North Carolina were African-Americans. In 2016, only 18% of the voters were African-Americans.…
Read MoreHow Trump’s Going to Conquer Ambivalence
Years ago a political savant told me, There’re three types of elections: One, the election where you like both candidates and vote for the one you like most. Two, the election where you like one candidate and dislike the other – that one’s easy, you vote for the candidate you like. Three, the election where…
Read MoreThe Election: How Vanity Bred a Mistake
At his rallies Donald Trump roars about the might of his base – in his eyes it’s the key to his defeating Joe Biden. So he tweets (to his base) how he has the highest approval rating among Republicans of any President, even Lincoln – but Trump’s calculation may boomerang: If every Republican Trumpster in…
Read MoreThe Election: Trump Makes a Miscalculation
You hear the words spoken every day, over and over, on CNN and Fox News: We’re more polarized than ever before. And on Facebook and Twitter President Trump – who sees igniting his ‘base’ as a key to defeating Biden – pours fuel on the fires of polarization. But there’s one wayward fact: Polarization isn’t…
Read MoreAround the Next Bend
Punching away after watching the Democrats debate in Las Vegas Trump tweeted Michael Bloomberg “was stumbling, bumbling and grossly incompetent” – punching back Bloomberg started putting up billboards around Trump’s rallies saying, “Donald Trump Eats Burnt Steak. Mike Bloomberg Likes His Medium Rare.” George Washington said no to being crowned king. At the end of…
Read MoreTwo Vices
Politicians see a block of voters and think, Let’s give them something and they’ll vote for us. We just saw one example: African-Americans made up half the voters in South Carolina’s Democratic Primary and a third of the voters in North Carolina’s primary and before the first vote was cast Joe Biden announced he’d give…
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