Posts by Gary Pearce
(Mis)reading polls
A reporter recently sent me a long list of detailed questions about how to tell if a political poll is reliable. Things like margin of error, sample size, live vs. robocalls, question wording, question order, the pollsters’ track record, partisan affiliation, past performance, etc. All good stuff. But face it, you’re not going to that…
Read MoreFrozen
Ten weeks out, the presidential election appears frozen in place. Absent an act of God or an incredibly boneheaded play by the Hillary Clinton campaign, she is going to win and Donald Trump is going to lose. Big. Then things will really get interesting. More in a bit. Trump is losing because of how he…
Read MoreThe wave
Democrats who are nervously hoping for a good 2016 but afraid to believe it need to read “The Wave” from Stanley Greenberg at Democracy Corps. His analysis: “America is about to experience a once-in-a-lifetime earthquake of an election, but progressives do not seem to trust the new American majority and its ascendant values and thus,…
Read MoreRoy is ready
As I listened to Roy Cooper set a crowd of OBX Democrats to clapping and hollering Monday evening, a wise old political vet whispered what I was thinking: “He’s come a long way.” A year or so ago, Democrats had doubts about Cooper. “He should have run before now.” “Does he really have the fire…
Read MoreThe rise of Deborah Ross
Richard Burr has his hands full. For the first time since he went to Washington 22 years ago, he faces a double whammy: a strong opponent and a bad year for Republicans. You can see his problem in the first ad for Deborah Ross. It tags Burr, sans socks, as the worst kind of Washington…
Read MoreTrump TV
If Donald Trump loses, he and Roger Ailes may well start Trump TV. They’ll outFox Fox. As James Carville said on Morning Joe, you can’t win an election with 40 percent, but you can make a bazillion dollars on TV with 40 percent. Can you imagine how much Trump and Ailes will debase a political…
Read MoreTGFT
Thank God for Trump. If the Republicans had nominated John Kasich or Marco Rubio, Hillary Clinton and the Democrats would be in trouble. Every week there’s another damaging story about emails, speaking fees or the Clinton Foundation. Another 14,900 emails coming? Great. Fortunately, Trump already may have made himself unelectable. Otherwise…. Hillary’s self-inflicted wounds come…
Read MoreElection-rigging
Donald Trump was right. Somebody is trying to rig the election. It’s his party. In North Carolina. Dallas Woodhouse’s email is the smoking gun. He directed Republican election board members in all 100 counties to make “party line” changes that keep Democrats from voting and keep Republican politicians in power. This is exactly what Republicans…
Read MoreJim Hunt’s still got it
Every few days somebody asks, “How’s Governor Hunt doing?” Here’s your answer. Bill Kirby Jr. wrote in the Fayetteville Observer this week about Hunt’s appearance at a Tim Kaine rally: “You would have thought, from the audience reaction, that Jim Hunt was the Democratic vice presidential nominee….Hunt, 79, his hair now near white, still can…
Read MoreThe Post-Trump GOP
Polls suggest that up to 30 percent of Republicans don’t want to vote for Donald Trump. They’re torn about what to do. Swallow hard and vote for Trump? Swallow harder and vote for Hillary Clinton? Vote for Gary Johnson, half of whose issues are totally contrary to Republican thinking? These Republicans are in agony. But…
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