Chariots of Fire won the Best Picture Oscar…Joe Montana and the 49ers won the Super Bowl …Dallas was the top TV show…and, back in 1982, I ran head-on into my first off-year election.

By then I’d worked in 3 campaigns – each ended well. In 1982, with Reagan in the White House, we set out to defeat 4 North Carolina Democratic Congressmen – and lost every race. Nationally, Democrats picked up a whopping 26 seats in Congress.

What went wrong? Inflation soared, tides shifted – blaming Reagan angry Democrats voted in droves and Swing Voters tilted to Democrats.

I saw my next ‘off-year’ election twelve years later – with Bill Clinton sitting in the White House, Republicans picked up a staggering 54 seats in Congress.

History repeated itself in 2010 – with Obama sitting in the White House, Republicans gained 63 seats.

Eight years later with Trump sitting in White House, Democrats picked up 41 seats.

Now, Trump’s back, unpopular, and we’re heading toward another off-year election where Governor Roy Cooper may run against Republican Senator Thom Tillis.

The last time a Governor took on a Senator here was when Jim Hunt ran against Jesse Helms – in our first poll Hunt led by 25 points. In the end Reagan won by a landslide, his coattails saved Jesse.

Like Jesse, Tillis is upside down. More voters dislike than like him. Worse, there’s no Reagan on the ballot to save him. And Roy Cooper’s a rare figure: Most voters like him – you don’t see that much in politics these days.

Politicians like to think they hold the power in their hands to win, to save themselves. But that’s vanity whispering. They can’t. Unseen tides, rivers, lightning striking out of a clear blue sky, unseen hands moving, decide elections. Can Tillis win? Yes. But with Trump dropping this smells like an off-year election where tides lift Democrats.