The Price You Pay
Two years ago, not long after Biden whipped Trump, sitting in a restaurant, voice incredulous, staring at me across the table, blinking, a Republican laughed: “What – are you blind? You can’t see Biden stole the election?”
Heads nodded.
I remembered election night (in 1980) when John East trailed, led, trailed again, at five o’clock in the morning won his Senate race by a hair.
“When a vote’s stolen you can prove it – tell me, which votes were stolen?”
He laughed, again. “Do I think the Democrats would steal an election – you bet I do.”
Trump said it, he believed it, the facts didn’t matter.
The first time Reagan ran for President Arthur Finkelstein flew to Raleigh, laid a poll on the table; for hours he and Tom Ellis, Reagan’s state chairman, argued about how to beat Gerald Ford in North Carolina’s primary – finally, exasperated, Arthur rapped his knuckles on the poll.
“These numbers say you’re wrong and numbers don’t lie.”
Polls aren’t quite that cut and dried – there are crooked pollsters and rigged polls. But real polls are just about the only objective measurement in politics – and last fall’s exit polls told a story about Republicans.
36% of the voters were Republicans, 33% Democrats, 31% Independents – more Republicans voted than Democrats, a three point edge. Enough to decide elections in swing states. Good news for Republicans.
But the next number showed bad news: For three decades Independents had voted against the party of the man sitting in the White House in off-year elections. There was only one exception: In 2002, after 9/11.
But, in 2022, even with Joe Biden in the White House, Independents voted for Democrats – in Pennsylvania’s Senate election by 20 points (58% to 38%), in Arizona by 17 points (56% to 39%), in Georgia by 11 points. Independents turned thumbs down on Republican Senate candidates in every swing state. Higher than expected Republican turnout saved J.D. Vance in Ohio and Ted Budd in North Carolina but Republican Senate candidates lost New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia.
Biden’s popularity was underwater with Independents – by 23 points (37% to 60%). Why didn’t that sink Democrats? Because Donald Trump was more unpopular than Biden, minus 36 points (30% to 66%).
One last number: The exit polls said Independents believed Republicans could handle the economy better than Democrats – so why did they vote for a Democrat like John Fetterman by 20 points? The election ended up being about character. Not issues. To Independents lies mattered. Trump hammered his mantra – “The election was stolen” – over and over. His candidate – Mehmet Oz – nodded. And on election day Oz found out cheering a lie comes with a price.
The Price You Pay
Two years ago, not long after Biden whipped Trump, sitting in a restaurant, voice incredulous, staring at me across the table, blinking, a Republican laughed: “What – are you blind? You can’t see Biden stole the election?”
Heads nodded.
I remembered election night (in 1980) when John East trailed, led, trailed again, at five o’clock in the morning won his Senate race by a hair.
“When a vote’s stolen you can prove it – tell me, which votes were stolen?”
He laughed, again. “Do I think the Democrats would steal an election – you bet I do.”
Trump said it, he believed it, the facts didn’t matter.
The first time Reagan ran for President Arthur Finkelstein flew to Raleigh, laid a poll on the table; for hours he and Tom Ellis, Reagan’s state chairman, argued about how to beat Gerald Ford in North Carolina’s primary – finally, exasperated, Arthur rapped his knuckles on the poll.
“These numbers say you’re wrong and numbers don’t lie.”
Polls aren’t quite that cut and dried – there are crooked pollsters and rigged polls. But real polls are just about the only objective measurement in politics – and last fall’s exit polls told a story about Republicans.
36% of the voters were Republicans, 33% Democrats, 31% Independents – more Republicans voted than Democrats, a three point edge. Enough to decide elections in swing states. Good news for Republicans.
But the next number showed bad news: For three decades Independents had voted against the party of the man sitting in the White House in off-year elections. There was only one exception: In 2002, after 9/11.
But, in 2022, even with Joe Biden in the White House, Independents voted for Democrats – in Pennsylvania’s Senate election by 20 points (58% to 38%), in Arizona by 17 points (56% to 39%), in Georgia by 11 points. Independents turned thumbs down on Republican Senate candidates in every swing state. Higher than expected Republican turnout saved J.D. Vance in Ohio and Ted Budd in North Carolina but Republican Senate candidates lost New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia.
Biden’s popularity was underwater with Independents – by 23 points (37% to 60%). Why didn’t that sink Democrats? Because Donald Trump was more unpopular than Biden, minus 36 points (30% to 66%).
One last number: The exit polls said Independents believed Republicans could handle the economy better than Democrats – so why did they vote for a Democrat like John Fetterman by 20 points? The election ended up being about character. Not issues. To Independents lies mattered. Trump hammered his mantra – “The election was stolen” – over and over. His candidate – Mehmet Oz – nodded. And on election day Oz found out cheering a lie comes with a price.