Let’s look at the Undecided Voters who’ll decide George Holding’s election against Linda Coleman. Fifteen percent of the voters are undecided. They’re Republicans 40%, Democrats 22%, and Independents 38%. When asked whether they would vote for a Republican candidate or a Democratic candidate for Congress (the Generic Ballot question), 48% vote Republican, 28% vote Democrat and 24% are Undecided.

20% of the undecided voters describe themselves as Liberals, 25% as Moderates, and 55% as Conservatives; 48% are men, 52% are women; 49% live in Wake county, 51% live in the other five counties in the district, which are made up of small towns and rural communities. And, since most African-American Democrats have already made up their minds to vote for Linda Coleman, very few of the undecided voters are African-Americans.

If George Holding wins 63% of the undecided vote (9.5 points out of 15 points) to Linda Coleman’s 37% (5.5 points out of 15) he would win the election: Holding 49.5, Coleman 48.5, with 2% voting for Jeff Matemu the Libertarian candidate.

Of course, that’s what statisticians describe as ‘too close to call.’ So, Holding needs to win more than 63% of the undecided voters, and he needs to persuade ‘soft’ Coleman voters to vote for him. Those two groups of voters don’t love Democrats – they don’t favor Coleman because they know and like her. In fact, they hardly know Coleman. But they don’t know Holding well either.

In fact, many of those same voters have voted for Republican candidates in the past – including for George Holding – but this year, since they ‘dislike Democrats least,’ instead of voting for Holding, who’s a Republican, they’re undecided.

How can George Holding win their votes?

He must give undecided voters a reason not to vote for Linda Coleman. And that’s where issues matter. But first, let’s talk about two other groups of voters.

To be continued…