Unstable Times
2010-10-21 - by
Historians and politicos yearn for stable, predictable political eras.
Arthur Schlesinger Jr. wrote about the “cycles” of American politics – the Progressive Era, the Republican Roaring 20s, the Age of Roosevelt, etc.
After 2008, James Carville predicted 40 years of Democratic dominance.
After 2000, Karl Rove predicted a permanent realignment.
So did Newt Gingrich after 1994.
Wrong.
After Nov. 2, Republicans and the media will predictably predict a dawning Republican era.
Wrong again.
Instead, we’re in the middle of a long period of political unpredictability and instability – perhaps with the parties trading power every two or four years after violent swings in public attitudes.
Since 1992 – a nine-election cycle – we’ve seen six dramatic shifts: 1992, 1994, 1996/1998, 2000, 2006/2008 and now, it appears, 2010.
The only real stability was in 2002 and 2004, but that reflected Bush’s strength after 9/11. And it disappeared in 2006/2008.
So hang on. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Unstable Times
2010-10-21/
Historians and politicos yearn for stable, predictable political eras.
Arthur Schlesinger Jr. wrote about the “cycles” of American politics – the Progressive Era, the Republican Roaring 20s, the Age of Roosevelt, etc.
After 2008, James Carville predicted 40 years of Democratic dominance.
After 2000, Karl Rove predicted a permanent realignment.
So did Newt Gingrich after 1994.
Wrong.
After Nov. 2, Republicans and the media will predictably predict a dawning Republican era.
Wrong again.
Instead, we’re in the middle of a long period of political unpredictability and instability – perhaps with the parties trading power every two or four years after violent swings in public attitudes.
Since 1992 – a nine-election cycle – we’ve seen six dramatic shifts: 1992, 1994, 1996/1998, 2000, 2006/2008 and now, it appears, 2010.
The only real stability was in 2002 and 2004, but that reflected Bush’s strength after 9/11. And it disappeared in 2006/2008.
So hang on. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.