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Millions of dollars will be spent and billions of words spilled, but only one thing will decide this election: Will voters be madder at President Obama or at Republicans in the legislature?
On today’s market, the outlook for Democrats is as chilling as a New Year’s Day Polar Bear Plunge. For two months, the news has been all Obamacare – and all bad. While Obama energizes voters when he’s on the ballot, the magic doesn’t transfer when he’s not. In 2010, his voters stayed home and the Obama-haters turned out in droves. That’s what got North Carolina in this mess.
If that happens again, Kay Hagan could lose, and Republicans could control both houses of Congress and keep super-majorities in Raleigh.
2015 would be no fun.
But, then, in 2016, Americans and North Carolinians would recoil at the result, Republicans will nominate Ted Cruz for President and there will be a Democratic landslide statewide and nationally.
There’s also a more optimistic scenario for Democrats this year: Anger at the legislature over the damage done to education could trump anger at Obama. The GOP and Tea Party could overreach nationally, like 1998, when Newt Gingrich & Co. overreached, lost big and paved the road for John Edwards’ election.
The point is that elections today are driven by negative emotions, namely fear and anger. No politician is popular. No politician has approval ratings above the 40s in North Carolina. By contrast, Jim Hunt stayed north of 60 percent most of the time he was Governor.
So keep an eye on one thing: Who are the voters maddest at in November?


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5 comments on “2014

  1. dap916 says:

    This looks like yet another post from you that seems to try to soften the blow for democrats for what many people (including you, I think) believe is going to happen in the 2014 elections. I like your philosophy of: “don’t worry, after we get our tails whipped in 2014, the voters will realize how bad the republicans are and we’ll be back in power”. Right, Gary.

    You say that North Carolina has become a “mess” because of the Republican majority in the legislature. I disagree, of course, but even if you’re right, are you honestly wanting people to believe that somehow North Carolina wasn’t in a “mess” before republicans took over our state legislature or before we got a Republican governor? C’mon.

    And, as far as how horrible the Republicans have done with education…um, isn’t the education budget larger this year than ever before? Not sure you’re being all that genuine in your presentation on that, my friend. Education in North Carolina has been a sore point for our state for eons…and I personally think Republicans have a far better handle on how to get our kids better educated than Democrats EVER did…except possibly under your hero Jim Hunt.

  2. Reaganite says:

    The attacks on the GOP legislature are deliberate distortions based on the far left’s ”Blueprint” campaign. Even though the ”Blueprint” plan was leaked before it was put into play, the completely incompetent GOP state chairman Robin Hayes did virtually nothing to push back against it. Now, the left’s media friends have spread those distortions so far that, even though they are lies, they have taken on a life of their own. This does pose a problem for Republicans.

    If our US Senate nominee is a member of the legislature, the outside leftist and Democrat groups will flood NC TV airwaves with Blueprint based attacks on our Senate nominee based on their distortions of the legislature’s record, connected by the nominee’s position in that legislature. This will not only hobble such a Senate nominee, but it will hurt our ticket at other levels as well. That will be especially true of our legislative candidates who will be battling a negative barrage from the Senate race that will impact them but that they will not have the resources to counteract. Given this background, nominating a member of the legislature for US Senate would be ac act of extreme stupidity by North Carolina Republicans. It would be political suicide.

    The way out of this problem is very obvious. We have two viable US Senate candidates in the primary who are NOT members of the legislature. If we nominate one of them, we escape this ”Blueprint” trap that the left has set for us. The left will not have the opening for the TV barrage against the legislature’s record. If we nominate Tillis, we walk right into that Blueprint trap.

  3. Choo says:

    You may get a bonus. Amnesty could be passed before the 1014 election adding another several million Democrat voters with hands out to the govenment for aid. Also there could be a federal action stopping mandatory ID’s for voting, and then it’s easy to pack the polls with illegal voters. Either way you win, so don’t get so down, things could turn your way.

  4. Reaganite says:

    Speaker Boehner looks like he is about to ride to the Democrats rescue, with his side kick Eric Cantor. He seems bound and determined to push Amnesty for Illegal Aliens through the House. If he does so, he will blow up the Republican Party, and snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory as conservatives stay home on election day. Even worse, it may well spark creation of a conservative third party, which would allow the Democrats to romp over divided opposition. Is Boehner an undocumented Democrat?

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