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Why was North Carolina a bright spot in an otherwise dark day for Republicans nationally?
Were my Republican consultant friends – Carter, Luther Snyder, Tom Fetzer, Paul Shumaker and Jack Hawke – that much smarter than their colleagues across the country?
Or was it just a weird confluence of circumstances: a governor’s race that was virtually uncontested and Republican control of maps and money?
The answer is probably: both.
Carter & Co. certainly understand that North Carolina is a closely divided state, maybe the closest in the country. It certainly was in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.
Except for the governor’s race, the winner in most every statewide race got about 53-54 percent – Republicans and Democrats.
And the total votes cast in legislative and congressional races split about evenly statewide.
But the map-and-money edge gave Republicans two (maybe three) congressional seats and about 70 percent of the legislative seats.
Clearly, Democrats have a steep hill to climb. But there is hope. Look at it this way: If the voters are split 50-50 and one party has 70 percent of the legislative seats, what are the odds that that party will do something (or many somethings) to alienate a majority?
Probably 100 percent.


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7 comments on “Red State Blues

  1. Chris says:

    Sure, they’ll do something to PO a bunch of people. But, the real test will be whether the GOP approach works — what will the State’s economy look like in, say, 4 years? If it’s substantially improved, then they may get a pass on some of those things.

  2. clarence swinney says:

    May it survive Corpocracy and go back to Democracy
    My Solutions—-
    A. People repeal Corp is a man

    B. Fed Fund Election-Stop two yr campaigns waste of money/ time
    6 months–3 for Primary Campaign–3 For General Campaign
    free equal tv time-provided by “our” tv airwaves
    One Debate a week. That is 12 And is adequate to evaluate candidates,
    This stops need to raise campaign funds. Congress and White House can stay on the job instead of constant traveling to raise funds. Restrict outside campaign funds.

    C. Since there is no need for campaign funds BAN members of the government from receiving anything with a financial value current or future promises. Stop the bribing by Lobbyists.

    D. Progressive Flat Tax By Group-we have a $14,000 income a 3800B budget yet rank #2 in oecd nations as lowest taxed. We refuse to tax wealth enough to pay our way. They have the money.
    Top 50% get 87% (agi) of Income and pay 13.5% Tax Rate.
    Bottom 50% or 70,000,000 workers get 13% not enough to pay much in taxes.
    They pay a greater percent of that Income in payroll- state-local taxes than many top incomes.
    It has been a disgrace that top ceos can get enormous increases in pay and many of 70,000,000 cannot get an increase in the minimum wage to better their standard of living.
    In A Christian nation I often wonder what Jesus Christ would say to us?

    E. Tax Book–burn that sucker. start anew. Any request for an exemption be televised so the public can watch attempts at bribery. It is so sad that in 2011 corporations with record profits paid 12.1% Tax Rate for second lowest in oecd nations. It is sad when we borrow $1300B with $14,000B income.
    because we tax only $2300B or 16.4% Tax Rate yet top incomes had huge pay increases.
    Job Creators=lowest since Hoover =while rich got ultra rich and masses borrowed from those rich to keep a decent standard of living. While top 10% gained to 73% of Net Wealth–to 83% of Financial Wealth and got 50% of individual income. While 70,000,000 got 13% of income.

    F. Tight audits and cut spending on Defense and Medicare the too biggies on unnecessary spending.
    Example—In San Francisco, colon exam is $7500 and $1500 in southern calif. hospitals.
    This per Head of public employee health care for calif. Example:elevated blood pressure. Two tests. Nitro patch on chest in bed nine hours. $6,000. Yes! $6,000.

  3. Carbine says:

    Oh, so now the governor’s race was “virtually uncontested” was it? Seems I recall one of you two blogging about how the polls were showing the race tightening, and pointing out things that might led to a Dalton victory. I wonder who that was?

    The reality is that the Democrats had no chance here, not even in the presidential race, despite tons of money and organizing and the fact their convention was held here. No chance–zero, zilch, nada. 2008 was a one-time only event, the result of a confluence of factors that cannot be replicated. You “professionals” should have known that.

    Now, will the Republicans in Raleigh screw up from time to time and lose popularity? Yes, of course they will–especially if they try to run this state as a one-party kleptocracy like the Democrats did for so long. But “hope” that the incumbents screw up is not a sound strategic plan. Democrats should go back to the basics and re-think some of their long-cherished sacred cow positions, and see if they can’t come up with something meaningful and attractive to offer for the next election.

  4. clarence swinney says:

    Pat Choate book & six proposals
    Major Tax Reform
    All-Encompassing Financial Reform
    A strong social safety net
    A major infrastructure program
    Ways and means to balance U.S. Trade with the rest of the world
    The renewal of national innovation
    He writes:”When the financial structure collapsed in fall 2008, it quickly became certain that our system of market capitalism was broken, endangered by decades of absolutist market dogma, short sighted policies and the abandonment of working people. Drastic reforms are needed”.
    Pat outlines a blueprint but will Leaders lead?
    How will a non- cooperative Congress fix it is my big question.

  5. dap916 says:

    I think you’re right that democrats have a steep hill to climb here in NC. But, even though you hate that for your party in our fair state, you should feel absolutely elated at the democratic party’s prospects going forward nationally and in some other states that have a different situation than NC.

    I mean, let’s be perfectly up front and honest here. The VAST majority of the black voters and the VAST majority of the hispanic voters as well as somewhere around 95% (or more) of those that receive government entitlements are going to vote for a democratic presidential candidate and with the numbers of all three of those demographics rising every year and with wealthier middle class whites as a voting bloc decreasing every year…well, it’s going to be tough for the republican party to pick up any seats in the Senate and should will eventually lose its control of the House.

    So, on the one hand, yeah, your employer…er….favored political party is screwed for a while here in NC. But, on the other hand, sooner or later, if the democrats have their way and we continue down our current path, this entire country will be majority democratic-ruled. Patience, Gary. I don’t see any way for republicans to overcome it…it’s gone too far.

  6. Carbine says:

    In the early 1900s the country was experiencing an enormous influx of immigration, and that had a huge impact on elections. But when was the last time anyone went out and campaigned for the Irish vote? Or the Polish vote?

    Over time, “immigrants” become “Americans,” and the same will happen with that diverse (and largely conservative) group we now call “hispanics” or “latinos.” There is no reason that the Republican Party should not be the natural home of those who come to America to work for a better life for themselves and their families.

  7. dap916 says:

    There is no reason the Republicans should gain the hispanic vote…the illegals coming here for citizenship…except for one. The democratic party is KNOWN by these folks to give them anything and everything. It’s for their votes…and, guess what, it works.

    We republicans want new citizens to come here and get into the working class citizenry and contribute taxes and create jobs by generating businesses and so forth. What is happening is that these people are…in a great many cases…coming here FOR the benefits, FOR giveaways, FOR favored status. And, the democratic party knows this and they’re giving that to them. Argue it with an example or two. Fine. There are THOUSANDS of examples to counter those arguments.

    It’s just the case and because of that, we are headed into a period in our country absolutely NO ONE ever thought would happen.

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