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It’s refreshing to see real brains working on the other side of the political aisle, rather than just mouths mouthing talking points. (In fact, it’s refreshing to see that on your own side.)
So this “Tsunami Watch” memo by my Republican pollster friend John McLaughlin and his brother Jim caught my eye. The subhead is “Polling results cast doubt on an anticipated midterm GOP wave.”
The memo quotes Carter, which makes it even more credible.
The Brothers McLaughlin ask: “With the president receiving such a negative rating, Obamacare being disliked, and the belief that the economy is still in a recession, why are so many voters still undecided and not breaking for Republicans? Why aren’t these undecided voters breaking against the unpopular president and his party?”
Their conclusion: “Over four years ago….we identified the tea-party movement as a major asset to Republicans that would eventually help them regain their House majority. Since then, the president and his allies in the media have relentlessly attacked our friends and allies in the Tea Party, and four years of attacks have taken a toll. Today, the Tea Party is as polarizing as the president.”
They add: “Finally, we asked a question that longtime friend and successful Republican strategist Carter Wrenn suggested to get to the heart of the deadlock: ‘A lot of Americans are fed up with typical Washington politics. Who do you think is most responsible for our broken political system?’ The plurality of voters, 43 percent, say both Republicans in Congress and the Tea Party, versus President Obama and the Democrats in Congress. Only 26 percent blame Obama and the Democrats….Most of those who are undecided for Congress, 65 percent, now blame both parties. Among the undecided voters, only 16 percent blame the Democrats and only 12 percent blame the Republicans. As long as these undecided swing voters are blaming both parties, they will remain undecided for Congress and deflate the midterm tsunami.”


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2 comments on “GOP Tsunami Watch

  1. Anonymous says:

    Erick Erickson at has a much better explanation of why Republicans are not pulling ahead, and it is the bitter war that the beltway GOP establishment has conducted against the conservative base of the party this election cycle.

    Your system will not let me put a link here (only someone named anonymous user seems to be able to do that), so readers will have to cut and paste this link into their browser to read the article:

  2. Anonymous says:

    Reading that link you posted, Gary, it seems only 1,000 people were polled to get the results that you’re presenting here. I have had a lot of instruction on things that pertain to polling and the single, most important thing I learned was “sample size, sample size, sample size”.

    I can get a small sample of a select few people and get whatever results I want. That’s the oldest polling trick in the book, my friend.

    I’m sure you’re struggling to find ways to put a smiley face on what’s going to happen in the upcoming elections in November this year. Truth is, you’re using the wrong strategy. If you convince those that would vote democratic that “it’s all good” come November, they’re not going to show up at the polls. You need to convince them that this is going to be a horribly tragic blow to entitlement receivers and to those that rely on government for their very being and unless they show up to vote, the evil, “responsibility-for-yourselves” republicans are going to take over and make you actually have to do something to be able to survive.

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