Two years and one month from now, America will inaugurate a Democratic President.

Why am I so certain?

Reason No. 1: History.

Since 1950, the Presidential party typically serves two – or one terms – and then is kicked out: Democrats in 1952, Republicans in 1960, Democrats in 1968, Republicans in 1976, Democrats in 1980, Democrats in 2000.

The only exception: George H. W. Bush won what was in effect Reagan’s third term in 1988.

Reagan was popular.  George W. Bush isn’t.  So historical odds favor Democrats.

Reason No. 2: War.

Bush is not going to take the life raft Jim Baker threw him.  He’s likely to send more good troops after bad.

If that doesn’t work, no Republican has a chance in 2008.  Especially the Republican who worries me most: John McCain.  McCain is the most vocal proponent of the “surge” strategy in Iraq.

Reason No. 3: It’s time for a change.

The public will be ready for a change of policy – in Iraq, on the economy, on health care and on the environment.

That thirst for change drove the 2006 elections.  It won’t pass quickly.

But which Democratic Party will win?

There are two Democratic Parties today:

• The pro-trade, business-friendly wing of Bill Clinton and Jim Hunt.

• The anti-trade, union-friendly wing that John Edwards is poised to lead.

The struggle between those two wings will have to do more with our country’s future than battles between Democrats and Republicans.

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