During Ronald Reagan’s 1976 primary Tom Ellis and I sat in a room listening to Arthur Finkelstein explain his first poll for Reagan in North Carolina – forty years later, sitting in my office across the table from Arthur, I listened to him explain his polls for George Holding. Sadly, a year later, Arthur passed on. After that, I did polls myself.

Now more often than not polls are subtle.

A few days ago, I read about a CNBC poll – they asked voters: Do you think Joe Biden is mentally unfit to be President? then they asked the same voters, Do you think Donald Trump is mentally unfit to be President?

52% thought Biden was unfit.

55% thought Trump.

But stop a minute to think: Most of the Trumpsters surely said Biden was unfit while, vice-versa, most Biden supporters said Trump was unfit – which left a small group who thought both were unfit. And that small group is the key. If someone thinks both Trump and Biden are unfit who do they vote for?

CNBC didn’t report a word about how that group was voting.

That piece of the puzzle was missing.

In political campaigns, when I say to a candidate, Take a poll – he or she usually shrugs and says, I know what I think. I don’t need a poll. Then they compound their misunderstanding by making decisions based on their own instincts – ‘What I see, What I hear, What I feel.’ But what they see, hear, feel doesn’t mirror what swing voters see, hear and feel.

Back in 1984, during Jesse Helms’ campaign against Jim Hunt, Jesse started out twenty-five points behind. For months Tom Ellis and I pummeled Jim Hunt on issues but nothing we did put a dent in his armor – then one day Arthur walked into my office, dropped a poll on my desk, looked from me to Tom Ellis, and said: “It’s time you two learned something new. This election isn’t about liberal versus conservative. It’s about Jim Hunt’s character.” Hunt’s flip-flops.

A poll told us what we didn’t know.