Through the fog of over-analysis, misdiagnosis and total BS that comes after every election, one thing is clear about Raleigh’s vote Tuesday: the “Drunktown” ad didn’t work. Its main target, Mary-Ann Baldwin, led the at-large race.

Why didn’t it work? Simple: voters didn’t believe it.

They didn’t believe for a minute that a member of the city council wanted drunks throwing up all over the sidewalks late at night.

This is a classic mistake people in politics make. They think they have a great negative attack on an opponent. They make a dramatic ad that gets other people in politics and the media all atwitter. They believe the voters will believe anything they’re told.

But the voters are on to the game. They see the ad and say, I don’t believe it. And they move on to other things. Once again, voters proved they’re smarter than people in politics.

Some people argued on Twitter that the ad “backfired.” Probably not. More likely, it just didn’t fire at all. It was a dud.

One TAPster probably had it right: the guy in the ad was leaving the legislature and was so disgusted with how Republicans are trashing the state that he puked on the sidewalk.