Trump sees one way he can win the election even if he loses Independents – by firing up his ‘base.’ By getting Trumpsters who didn’t vote in 2018 and 2016 to go to the polls. Trump – using tweets and name-calling and boasting – has put all his showmanship to work to do that.

What happens if he succeeds?

In North Carolina, normally, around 70% of the voters – which would be around 5 million people this election – go to the polls. Let’s say, hypothetically, right now those voters are:

                        Trumpsters (40%): 2 million people

                        Anti-Trumpsters (40%): 2 million people

                        Independents (20%): 1 million people

To win Trump needs to get 501,000 votes from Independents.

But they’re around 2 million other people who don’t vote – and Trump’s betting he can light a fire under the ones who like him so they’ll go to the polls. Let’s guess Trump succeeds and 10% of those voters – who’re Republicans – go to the polls. That’s 200,000 votes for Trump. Look at how the math changes:

                        Trump then has: 2,200,000 votes

                        Biden still has: 2,000,000 votes

                        Independents are still: 1,000,000 votes

                        Total Votes: 5,200,000

To win Trump then needs 401,000 – not 501,000 – Independent votes. He only needs 40% of the Independents instead of 50%. And that’s a sea change.

Motivating 200,000 people to vote doesn’t sound impossible. But it’s tougher than it sounds. People who don’t vote don’t care about politics. For years candidates have tried – and failed – to get them to go to the polls.

Can Trump pull it off?

He’s betting a lot of money he can.

But his plan has caused Trump an unexpected problem – when Independents hear his boasts and name-calling they scowl and shake their heads: Trump’s igniting his base but it’s costing him the votes of Independents.