Here’s one reason it looks like Donald Trump may cause Republicans heartburn this fall: 30% of the voters in North Carolina almost always vote for the Republican candidate and 35% almost always vote Democratic.

Conservative Rural Democrats are the first (and smallest) group of swing voters and they’re a blessing to Republicans. They’re only around 5% of the electorate but more often than not Conservative Democrats vote for Republican candidates who’re more conservative and that seems to be holding up in the polls this year – rural Conservative Democrats are voting for Pat McCrory and Richard Burr and their votes level the playing field between Republicans and Democrats, giving each around 35% of the vote.

From there the election hinges on Independents who break into two groups: Rural Independents and Suburban Independents.

Now Independents generally dislike both parties but Rural Independents, politically and culturally, tend to be more Conservative; however, there’re also fewer Rural Independents than Suburban Independents and that’s where this election gets dicey for Republicans because Donald Trump is phenomenally unpopular in the suburbs – which puts Hillary Clinton in position to carry the state’s biggest counties by larger margins than Barack Obama ever did.

There’re dozens of Republican candidates running in those counties, and Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the suburbs spells trouble for each of them.