The media’s all but written Hillary’s obituary (for the third time) but this time it looks like they’ll make it stick.

But before Hillary rides off over the horizon and disappears under a cloud of super-delegates she’s given Obama one more royal thumping in West Virginia by 67% to 26%.

Now this seems like good news for Republicans. It points out how – since there are relatively few African-Americans in West Virginia – intensely the Democratic Primaries (which are about the last place on earth you’d expect it) have polarized on race. But the news isn’t as good as it seems.

The same day a Gallup poll, nationally, showed Hillary leading John McCain, 48% to 44%. The poll also showed Obama leading McCain by an almost identical margin, 47% to 44%. So, even if the Democrats are polarized on race it doesn’t sound like they’re all that divided – except when they’re fighting among themselves.

That doesn’t mean they won’t split up later – one trend the Democratic Primaries have established is Obama’s race does impact his votes. But there are other trends, too, that may be more important.

First, President Bush has set a record for unpopularity. When Obama says, McCain is Bush’s third term – that resonates with every one of Hillary’s voters.

Second, the number of voters who identify themselves as Democrats is up. A lot. And the number who identify themselves as Republicans is down. A lot. Republicans lost former Speaker Denny Hastert’s seat in Illinois amonth ago, then a seat in Louisiana that’s been Republican for thirty-five years and, yesterday, lost again to fill a Republican seat in Mississippi. These are not good signs. They may be a warning to Republicans the typhoon that swept through the Congressional elections in 2006 was just the front-edge of the storm.

Third, there’s a growing populist trend against corporate America. Americans have had enough or soaring gas prices, soaring health care costs, million dollar CEO bonuses and sub-prime mortgages – and they see Democrats as the party to do something about it.

Fourth, there’s a growing radicalization within the Democratic Party. Looking back, Howard Dean and the Internet unleashed new forces inside of the Democratic Party and this year the Deaniacs (reborn as Obama supporters) are running rings around the establishment. They lost in 2004 but dealt with Joe Lieberman two years later and thanks to $250 million in contributions their guy is about to win the Democratic nomination.

Those are the trends: Race. Bush. The war. A Democratic surge. Anti-corporate populism. Extremism. And $250 million.

No wonder nobody’s saying politics is simple. Or boring.

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