How will the ‘pay to play’ scandals impact Democratic candidates this election? In most years, the answer would be a lot. But this year, there are several trends that may change that.

First, we Republicans have our own foibles to explain. Second, if the polls are correct, nationally, the war in Iraq is the dominant issue this election – and the tide is running in the Democrats’ favor. Third, as far as the State House and Senate races go, Democrats have one other big advantage: Money. Republicans will be outspent by three or four or five to one and the bottom line is blunt: Republican candidates may not have the financial muscle to compete with their Democratic opponents.

When it comes to matching Democrats financially, part of the Republicans’ problem is they are a minority in the legislature. But that’s not the whole story. ‘Pay to Play’ may have led Democrats into a quagmire of scandals, but it has also been a goldmine for them in terms of campaign dollars. It’s one reason for Democrats’ big financial edge. But that’s not the whole story, either. Give the Democrats credit, when it comes to raising money they leave few stones unturned. They do their homework.

Of course, it is possible voters may express their disapproval of the war in Iraq by voting for Democrats in Congressional races, and then turn around and vote against them in state races because of the scandals. But concern about the war may simply overwhelm every other issue and, in that case, Democrats may win despite the scandals.

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