Powers beyond our control, breeding crises no one saw coming, have changed politics in the blink of an eye: Pearl Harbor did that. So did 9/11. And Covid.

The ‘unexpected’ makes predicting the outcome of an election a year away risky business. For all we know Putin may invade Poland next. Or Kim Jong Un may fire a real nuclear missile. But it looks like there’s one issue this election no one can escape: Was the last election stolen?

Republican political wizards take polls, ask voters: Was the election stolen? Republicans say yes. Wizards tell candidates: You don’t want to get on the wrong side of that one – if you do you lose. So, even if he knows the election wasn’t stolen, a politician dodges, side-stepping.

But either Biden stole the 2020 election or Trump tried to steal it (by replacing Biden Electors with Trump electors).

And a politician stealing an election to get power is a spear in the heart of democracy – we can’t elect Biden if he stole it or Trump if he tried to.

To beat Trump, DeSantis, Pence, Haley, Christie have to throw cunning out the window and prove to Republicans Trump tried to steal the election. That defies political calculations. It’s risky. But what happens if no one does that?

Trump wins.

Then, ironically, Trump, himself, lands in the same trap: Most General Election voters believe Trump did try to steal the election on January 6 – and believing that, even though they loath Biden, they vote for Biden.

Look at what happened in the Georgia Special Elections in 2021 – Trump said the election was stolen, two Republican Senators nodded, both lost. History repeated itself in 2022: Trump candidates in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada lost. On top of that, facing two court cases that accuse him of trying to steal the election, Trump can’t dodge. To win, he has to prove to swing voters the real thief was Biden.

And if he doesn’t?

He loses – and (ugh) we end up with four more years of Biden.