How key was North Carolina in the 2008 election? Well, it’s possible the stimulus package might not have passed the Senate if Kay Hagan hadn’t beaten Liddy Dole.

The bill passed 61-58, with the help of three Republicans. Without Hagan, the vote might have been 60-59. Cut it that close, and President Obama might not have been able to get Republican help.

Typically, “battleground” status is conferred on a state in a presidential election. In 2008, North Carolina was the only true Southern state Obama carried. (Virginia is too Washington and Florida too New York to be considered true Southern.)

Obama won such a big victory North Carolina was just one of several states that played a part. But Hagan’s victory now has had real consequences for the nation.

For Senator Richard Burr, the question is whether his vote against the stimulus bill will help or hurt him next year. Obviously, he thinks it’s a political slam-dunk to vote against more spending.

But the political situation today is very fluid. If the economy comes back before the 2010 election, Obama and his stimulus bill will get the credit. If Obama is popular – and if he abandons this notion of bipartisanship and campaigns against Burr – Burr could be the latest in a long line of one-term Senators from North Carolina.

Burr is in the position, like many Democrats in the 1980s, of benefiting only if Obama fails and the economy keeps falling.

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