Albert the pollster’s just gotten back a national poll and he’s in a funk.

Albert, as he says, has three levels of warnings when he’s advising a campaign. The first example is when the campaign wants to make a silly mistake, but one that won’t do a great deal of harm. When that happens Albert says, I don’t believe I’d do that, but doesn’t waste a lot of time arguing. He calls that Level One Scream.

A Level Two Scream is when the campaign wants to make a mistake that will cause a lot of harm. Then Albert says, I wouldn’t do that, and argues until he’s blue in the face.

A Level Three Scream is when the campaign wants to make a mistake that is catastrophic – when that happens Albert rolls on the floor, pulls his hair out and howls bloody murder.

He’s spending a lot of time these days rolling on floors because, he says, ‘President Bush’s unpopularity has caused the dam to break.’

The way Albert sees it every thirty or forty years there’s a political realignment. Roosevelt in 1932. Reagan in 1980. He says when the Cold War ended the coalition that united to elect Reagan dispersed (because the reason it came together in the first place vanished) and since then the country’s been cruising, tilting between Republicans and Democrats in elections.

But now Bush is so unpopular a horde of new voters, women and ticket-splitters are marching straight into the Democratic camp wearing blue and white ‘change’ t-shirts. Part of the Independents now call themselves Democrats and part of the Republicans now call themselves Independents. ‘And,’ Albert says, ‘What they all have in common is they don’t like Bush.’

Which brings me to Democratic Chairman Jerry Meek’s email proclaiming North Carolina a ‘Battleground State.’ Chairman Meek may be forgiven if he sounds a bit like a rooster getting up on his perch and crowing before sunrise – but the question is, Is he, like the rooster, confused? Or after thirty-two years of voting for Republicans for President is North Carolina about to diss John McCain for Barack Obama?

That, as far as a political change goes, would be pretty profound and if Meek has gotten his teeth into a fact (instead of crowing at the moon) Albert is right, The dam has broken.

This is one mystery we Republicans – and primarily John McCain – have to figure out pretty quickly. And you’d think as a proven ‘maverick’ McCain might be in a good frame of mind to look at the damage done by President Bush’s unpopularity from an objective point of view to decide whether it’s a short-term threat to his beating Obama or a long-term catastrophe.

But, on the other hand – Albert says – McCain’s brain-trusters are part of the Washington Republican Establishment who tend to take a very conventional view of politics. ‘I’d like to think,’ he adds, ‘They’re sitting in Washington right now staring at a stack of polls, saying, Boys, the world has changed. But I’ve got a feeling they’re sitting there telling themselves, This is all pretty inconvenient but if we wait it out – just like in past presidential elections where the Democratic nominee got an unexpected boost after the primary – it’ll go away.’

‘Well,’ I said, ‘They may be right. The wind may go out of Obama’s sails just like it did for the last five Democratic liberals who ran for President.’

Albert started frothing at the mouth. ‘None of them,’ he said, ‘Were running when George Bush had a twenty-eight-percent approval rating.’ Then he said something really troubling. ‘Think of it this way. Imagine if George Bush were running against Obama. You got any doubts how that would come out?’

‘Alright,’ I said. ‘Bush is unpopular. But Bush isn’t running and Republicans aren’t wrong about everything. They’re right a lot of times – like about cutting government spending.”

‘But Bush didn’t do that.’

‘Then how about the threat of terrorism?’

‘We whipped Hitler in four years. Bush didn’t whip bin Laden in seven.’

‘Well, give him a little credit. He did cut taxes. So will McCain.’

That cut no ice either. Albert said: ‘Home foreclosures are up. Bankruptcies are up. A friend called the other day looking for a government job because he’s fifty-nine years old, self-employed and can’t afford to pay his own health insurance. How do you think he feels about McCain cutting taxes on corporations?’

‘Albert,’ I said, ‘I’ll tell you one thing nobody likes – a pollster with no good news.’

‘Okay. Here’s some good news. The Republican National Committee just forced Obama to remove one of the three people he picked to ‘vet’ his choices for Vice President – and it’s about to trash another ‘vetter’ because he told Clinton to pardon Mark Rich. That’s two victories.’

‘Your point is that’s not a burning issue in Raleigh?’

‘The dam has broken.’

I hung up and decided to work on something that had nothing to do with politics. Then the phone rang again and it was a Democrat and I asked, From your side of the fence, as a Democrat, do you think the dam’s broken? She said, It’s hard to believe after losing every presidential election here since 1976 that’s possible, but I did hear this: Obama’s campaign is sending an army of workers to North Carolina.

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