There’ve been two special elections for Congress and two more are on the way: Last fall, Trump won three of those districts easily but won one — in Georgia — by just two points.

The Georgia district is Republican (31%); Democrat (27%); Independent (41%). That’s a four point Republican advantage. But a poll last week by a TV station showed the Democrat leading: John Ossoff (51%); Karen Handel (44%).

So, in a district that is more Republican than Democrat, the Democrat leads. Why?

Among all voters Donald Trump’s Unfavorable is 51%. And Democrat Ossoff gets 51% of the vote.

Among Independent voters Trump’s Unfavorable is 55%. And Ossoff gets 57%.

To win Karen Handel, the Republican, needs 49% of the Independent vote. Trump’s Favorable with those Independents is 24%. Handel receives 37% of their votes – she’s running well ahead of Trump – but she’s 12 points short of her goal. And that’s a number to watch: Handel needs more Independents who are not Favorable to Donald Trump to vote for her.

That’s a story we may see again.